Potential future increases in flooding due to climate change need to be taken into consideration when designing flood defences or planning new infrastructure or housing developments. Existing guidance on climate change allowances in Great Britain was based on research that developed a sensitivity-based approach to estimating the impacts of climate change on flood peaks, which was applied with catchment-based hydrological models. Here, the sensitivity-based approach is applied with a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, producing modelled flood response surfaces for every river cell on a 1 km grid. This provides a nationally consistent assessment of the sensitivity of flood peaks across Britain to climatic changes. The flood response surfaces are then combined with the most recent climate change projections, UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), to provide location-specific information on the potential range of impacts on floods across the country, for three flood return periods, three future time-slices and four emissions scenarios. An accompanying web-tool provides a convenient way to explore the large amount of data produced. Consideration is now being given to how to use the latest work to update guidance on climate change and flood peaks, including a workshop held to gather stakeholder views.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对河流峰值流量的影响：结合国家规模的水文模型和概率预测


在设计防洪或规划新的基础设施或住房开发时，需要考虑气候变化导致的未来洪水可能增加的情况。英国现有的气候变化津贴指南是基于研究开发了一种基于敏感性的方法来估计气候变化对洪峰的影响，该方法应用于基于流域的水文模型。在这里，基于敏感性的方法应用于国家级网格水文模型，为 1 公里网格上的每个河流单元生成洪水响应面模型。这为英国洪水峰值对气候变化的敏感性提供了全国一致的评估。然后将洪水响应面与最新的气候变化预测——2018 年英国气候预测 (UKCP18) 相结合，提供关于全国洪水潜在影响范围的特定地点信息，包括三个洪水重现期、三个未来时间-切片和四种排放情景。随附的网络工具提供了一种便捷的方式来探索所产生的大量数据。目前正在考虑如何利用最新工作来更新有关气候变化和洪峰的指导意见，包括举办研讨会以收集利益相关者的意见。