ABSTRACT

The use of biomass to produce biofuels can lead to both direct and indirect Land Use Change (LUC). While the causes underlying LUCs are complex their quantification is a scientific challenge that hinders decision-making. Here we demonstrate the application of participatory modelling in combination with System Dynamics techniques to the analysis of the land-change dynamics associated with biofuel supply chains. The ambition is to provide decision-makers with useful and credible knowledge of direct and indirect LUCs. We illustrate the application of the approach by applying it to a real‐world project for the production of advanced biofuels in Sardinia (Italy). The results show that the land use displacements vary in intensity and persistence depending on the crop management regime applied and the future development of the market of sheep cheese. The results were considered credible by actors with direct knowledge of the ‘real’ system and useful by decision makers .

摘要

使用生物质生产生物燃料可导致直接和间接土地利用变化（LUC）。尽管LUC的根本原因很复杂，但其量化是一项科学挑战，阻碍了决策制定。在这里，我们展示了参与式建模与系统动力学技术相结合在与生物燃料供应链相关的土地变化动力学分析中的应用。我们的目标是为决策者提供关于直接和间接LUC的有用和可信的知识。我们通过将该方法应用于撒丁岛（意大利）生产高级生物燃料的真实项目来说明该方法的应用。结果表明，土地利用流失的强度和持久性取决于所采用的作物管理制度和羊奶酪市场的未来发展。