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Modelling Age Patterns of Internal Migration at the Highest Ages
Spatial Demography ( IF 1.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-25 , DOI: 10.1007/s40980-020-00062-7
Tom Wilson

Model migration age schedules have proved valuable to demographers for a range of applications for over 40 years. The original Rogers-Castro curve has been extended over time to include a retirement curve, a post-retirement curve, and a student peak. With demographic analyses extending to higher age groups than in the past due to population ageing, it is important for the model schedule to faithfully reflect migration patterns at advanced ages. Recent data on internal migration in the nonagenarian and centenarian ages reveals several examples of rising then falling mobility with increasing age. This paper suggests an alternative specification of the post-retirement curve of the model schedule to reflect this pattern. The modified model migration schedule is successfully fitted to example internal migration age patterns from Australia, Canada and the Netherlands. The modified schedule should prove useful in preparing input data for population projections and analyses of migration age patterns extending to the highest ages.



中文翻译:

建模最高年龄内部迁移的年龄模式

事实证明,模型迁移年龄计划对于人口统计学家而言已有40多年的应用价值。最初的Rogers-Castro曲线已随时间扩展,包括退休曲线,退休后曲线和学生高峰。由于人口老龄化,与过去相比,人口统计分析的范围扩大到比过去更高的年龄组,因此,对于模型时间表来说,忠实反映高龄人口的迁移模式非常重要。关于非精算师和百岁老人的内部迁移的最新数据显示了随着年龄的增长,流动性先上升后下降的几个例子。本文提出了模型时间表的退休后曲线的替代规范,以反映这种模式。修改后的模型迁移时间表已成功地拟合了澳大利亚内部迁移年龄模式的示例,加拿大和荷兰。修改后的时间表将证明在为人口预测准备输入数据以及分析延伸到最高年龄的移民年龄模式方面很有用。

更新日期:2020-06-25
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