Predominantly white Mainline and Evangelical Protestant denominations are in a state of stagnation or decline in the United States. This is partially because these denominations fail to thrive in the ever-growing racial-ethnic diversity of the U.S. In fact, despite increases in the non-white population, diversity within these Protestant groups remains low. The organizational ecology approach asserts that the mismatch between the potential pool of adherents and the demographic niche occupied by the white Protestant groups encourages decline in areas that are diversifying. Past research supporting this theory, however, have relied on limited samples/timeframes and neglected the spatial autocorrelation of religious adherent rates and its predictors. This study re-examines the linkage between racial-ethnic minority growth and white denominations’ adherent decline using a fixed-effects spatial Durbin model to predict the adherent rates of Mainline and Evangelical Protestants in U.S. counties from 1980 to 2010. Results from the non-spatial fixed effects model fail to identify a significant association for Mainline denominations, but adjusting for spatial dependency reveals a direct effect for Mainline denominations and a spatial spillover effect for Evangelicals. Future studies on religious change and diversity must take their spatial structure into account.

中文翻译：

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种族种族多样性和以白人为主的主线和福音派新教教派的下降：一种空间固定效应方法

在美国，主要的白色主线和福音派新教派教派处于停滞或下降状态。部分原因是这些派别在美国不断增长的种族多样性中无法繁荣发展。事实上，尽管非白人人口有所增加，但这些新教徒群体的多样性仍然很低。组织生态学方法断言，潜在的拥护者群体与白人新教徒群体所占据的人口生态位之间的不匹配，导致多元化领域的衰退。但是，过去支持该理论的研究仅依赖有限的样本/时间框架，而忽略了宗教信奉率及其预测因素的空间自相关。这项研究使用固定效应空间Durbin模型重新预测了1980年至2010年美国各县干线和福音派新教徒的依从率，从而重新检验了种族少数族裔的增长与白人教派的依从率下降之间的联系。空间固定效应模型无法确定与主线面额的显着关联，但对空间依赖性的调整揭示了对主线面额的直接影响和对福音派的空间溢出效应。未来有关宗教变化和多样性的研究必须考虑其空间结构。非空间固定效应模型的结果未能确定与主线面额的显着关联，但是对空间依赖性的调整揭示了对主线面额的直接影响和对福音派的空间溢出效应。未来有关宗教变化和多样性的研究必须考虑其空间结构。非空间固定效应模型的结果无法确定与Mainline面额的显着关联，但是对空间依赖性的调整揭示了Mainline面额的直接效应和Evangelicals的空间溢出效应。未来有关宗教变化和多样性的研究必须考虑其空间结构。