This study assesses the capabilities of the 4-parameters own children method (4-pOCM) approach in the estimation of fertility rates of small areas using Schoumaker’s (2013) Poisson regression-based person-period approach (PPA). The paper was designed to appraise the Excel toolkit designed by Garenne and McCaa (2017) to implement the 4-pOCM in relation to Schoumaker’s (2013) Stata software command tfr2 which implements a Poisson regression-based PPA to calculate fertility rates. Using a descriptive approach, analyses were conducted on the 2015 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, applying the two tools and methods to the estimation of national and subnational fertility rates. The results showed that the 4-pOCM was able to maintain consistency in its estimates between national to subnational levels just like the proven tfr2. The study concluded that the 4-pOCM can be a reliable reference method for studying fertility trends of small areas especially in African contexts where reliable vital registration data are limited.

中文翻译：

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生育率的小范围估算：比较4参数自生子方法和基于Poisson回归的人为时期方法

这项研究使用Schoumaker（2013）基于Poisson回归的人为时期方法（PPA）评估了4参数自己的孩子方法（4-pOCM）方法在估计小区域生育率方面的能力。该论文旨在评估由Garenne和McCaa（2017）设计的Excel工具箱，以实现与Schoumaker（2013）Stata软件命令tfr2有关的4-pOCM，后者执行基于Poisson回归的PPA以计算生育率。使用描述性方法，对2015年津巴布韦人口与健康调查进行了分析，将这两种工具和方法应用于估算国家和地方以下的生育率。结果表明，就像已经证明的tfr2一样，4-pOCM能够在国家和国家以下各级之间保持估计的一致性。