Even in statistically advanced countries, estimates of subnational international migration are often lacking. In Australia, immigration and emigration estimates are regularly published for the States and Territories, but not for finer geographical scales. Some sub-state immigration data are available from the census, but equivalent emigration data do not exist. This paper proposes a method for creating sub-state immigration and emigration estimates for Australia which are consistent with state-level international migration statistics published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). International migration flows for the period 2006–2011 were estimated for 49 sub-state regions comprising State/Territory capital city regions and large regions outside the capitals. Use was made of ABS state-level international migration statistics disaggregated by visa/citizenship category, and detailed census data. Immigration was simply distributed to regions on the basis of census immigration flows. The estimation of emigration was more complex: state-level flows by visa/citizenship category were distributed spatially according to different combinations of census variables. The methods are shown to produce plausible estimates of immigration and emigration, and thus net international migration, at the sub-state scale. These estimates should prove useful for improving our knowledge and understanding international migration flows in Australia at the regional scale, and for setting population projection assumptions.

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评估次国家国际移民的方法：以澳大利亚为例

即使在统计先进的国家，也常常缺乏对国家以下地区国际移民的估计。在澳大利亚，会定期发布各州和领地的移民和移民估计数，但不会发布更精细的地理比例。可从人口普查获得一些次州移民数据，但不存在等效的移民数据。本文提出了一种创建与澳大利亚统计局（ABS）发布的州级国际移民统计数据相一致的澳大利亚次州移民和移民估计的方法。估计2006-2011年期间的国际移民流量来自49个次州地区，包括州/地区首府城市地区和首都以外的大区域。使用了按签证/公民类别分类的ABS国家级国际移民统计数据以及详细的人口普查数据。只是根据人口普查移民流量将移民分配到各个地区。移民的估计更为复杂：根据人口普查变量的不同组合，按签证/公民类别划分的州级移民在空间上分布。结果表明，这些方法可以对次国家规模的移民和移民以及国际净移民进行合理的估计。这些估计数应证明对增进我们的知识和理解区域规模的澳大利亚国际移徙流动以及确定人口预测假设很有用。只是根据人口普查移民流量将移民分配到各个地区。移民的估计更为复杂：根据人口普查变量的不同组合，按签证/公民身份类别的州级别移民在空间上分布。结果表明，这些方法可以对次国家规模的移民和移民以及国际净移民进行合理的估计。这些估计数应证明对增进我们的知识和理解区域规模的澳大利亚国际移徙流动以及确定人口预测假设很有用。只是根据人口普查移民流量将移民分配到各个地区。移民的估计更为复杂：根据人口普查变量的不同组合，按签证/公民类别划分的州级移民在空间上分布。结果表明，这些方法可以对次国家规模的移民和移民以及国际净移民进行合理的估计。这些估计数应证明对增进我们的知识和理解区域规模的澳大利亚国际移徙流动以及确定人口预测假设很有用。结果表明，这些方法可以对次国家规模的移民和移民以及国际净移民进行合理的估计。这些估计数应证明对增进我们的知识和了解区域规模的澳大利亚国际移徙流动以及确定人口预测假设很有用。结果表明，这些方法可以对次国家规模的移民和移民以及国际净移民进行合理的估计。这些估计数应证明对增进我们的知识和理解区域规模的澳大利亚国际移徙流动以及确定人口预测假设很有用。