Recent research has highlighted a profound reversal in the well-documented relationship between increasing development and falling fertility at a global scale. This reversal shows that the total fertility rates of the most developed nations in the world are actually increasing. The trend means different things. In some cases, it is simply a data product of the slowing average age at first birth for women in highly developed areas. For others, it is a cultural shift towards larger families in response to a surplus of economic resources. Using multiple data sources, this research examines this shift in the United States by examining levels of relative sub-national human development at the county level and associated relationships to county total fertility rates. Results highlight a non-linear relationship that suggests sub-national human development is related to sub-national variations in fertility behaviors similar to recent research on a global scale. The policy implications of such a reversal in fertility are very important for government officials and public policy makers as they move forward in addressing future issues associated with population aging, labor force turnover, and in the providing of services to youth.

中文翻译：

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人类发展与生育力逆转：在美国进行的以空间为中心的国家以下地方考试

最近的研究突出表明，在全球范围内，有据可查的增长与生育率下降之间的关系发生了深刻的逆转。这种逆转表明，世界上最发达国家的总生育率实际上正在增加。趋势意味着不同的事物。在某些情况下，它只是高度发达地区妇女初生平均年龄下降的数据产物。对于其他人来说，这是文化上向大家庭的转变，以应对经济资源的过剩。这项研究使用多个数据源，通过检查县级相对次国家人类发展水平以及与县总生育率的相关关系，研究了美国的这一转变。结果强调了一种非线性关系，这表明亚国家的人类发展与亚国家的生育行为变化有关，类似于全球范围内的最新研究。对于政府官员和公共政策制定者来说，生育率逆转的政策含义非常重要，因为他们在解决与人口老龄化，劳动力流动以及为年轻人提供服务有关的未来问题方面向前迈进。