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Existential Threats of Immigration and Terrorism Predict Voting for Brexit and Trump
Evolutionary Psychological Science ( IF 1.4 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-26 , DOI: 10.1007/s40806-020-00245-x
Alyson E Blanchard , Fraenze Kibowski , Thomas J Dunn

The year 2016 witnessed historic political change with the ascension to power of Donald Trump and the UK’s vote to leave the European Union (i.e. Brexit). Research has sought to explain these once-deemed unlikely events, yet an evolutionary theoretical account remains unexplored. From a life history perspective, a rise in existential threat, potentially caused by increased media coverage of the War in Syria and immigration issues, may have prompted a shift to a faster life history strategy (LHS)/pace of life syndrome (POLS). Immediate answers were sought despite long-term consequences. In this multiple study paper, we shed light on this thesis. Firstly, in establishing a perceived increase in existential threats between 2014 and 2016. Secondly, by examining if LHS/POLS and associated proxies, as well as fear of terrorism and immigration predicted voting for Brexit or Trump. Trump voters feared terrorism, and Brexit voters feared immigration, but LHS/POLS was not directly, nor ultimately influential in their vote choice; however, for those that did not vote, it was. Nevertheless, other life history proxies were important factors in voting. Thus, the link between LHS/POLS and voting is complex but affords new insight into voter psychology during the EU referendum and US presidential election.

中文翻译:

移民和恐怖主义的现有威胁预示着英国脱欧和特朗普的投票

2016年见证了历史性的政治变革,唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的权力提升以及英国投票退出欧盟(即英国退欧)。研究试图解释这些曾经被认为不太可能发生的事件,但仍未探索进化的理论解释。从生活史的角度来看,生存威胁的增加可能是由于媒体对叙利亚战争的报道和移民问题引起的,这可能促使人们转向了更快的生活史策略(LHS)/生活节奏综合症(POLS)。尽管造成了长期后果,但仍寻求立即的答案。在这份多篇研究论文中,我们阐明了这一论点。首先,确定在2014年至2016年之间存在的生存威胁有所增加。其次,通过检查LHS / POLS是否存在相关代理,以及对恐怖主义和移民的恐惧,预计将投票支持英国脱欧或特朗普。特朗普选民担心恐怖主义,英国退欧选民担心移民,但是LHS / POLS并不直接,也不最终影响他们的投票选择。但是,对于那些没有投票的人,是的。尽管如此,其他生活史代理还是投票的重要因素。因此,LHS / POLS与投票之间的联系很复杂,但是在欧盟公投和美国总统大选期间为选民心理提供了新的见识。
更新日期:2020-05-26
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