Unrealistic expectations with regard to one’s study program has been linked to negative consequences for future academic success. Previous studies that have shown this are often retrospective, however, and focus on performance-related expectations (e.g. expected grades), while unrealistic expectations about the required effort and the content of the program (content-related expectations) may be more relevant for explaining dropout in tertiary education. This study prospectively investigates whether the content-related expectations of 208 Dutch Sport Academy students elicited before the start of their vocational program are associated with subsequent dropout and academic performance. Our results show that dropped-out students did not differ in expected grades (even though they did differ in prevocational GPA). Moreover, their content-related expectations at the start of the program did not from successful students, nor were they any less realistic. Still, when retrospectively asked, 50% of the students answered that the concerning program did not fit. This suggests that retrospective reports of inadequate expectations may not reflect deficient expectations before starting the program. Instead, tertiary educational programs may defy expectations in both successful students and later unsuccessful students, with surprises being pleasant for successful students and unpleasant for unsuccessful ones.

对一个人的学习计划的不切实际的期望与对未来学业成功的负面影响有关。然而，先前的研究表明，这通常是回顾性的，并且侧重于与绩效相关的期望（例如预期成绩），而对所需工作量和计划内容的不切实际期望（与内容相关的期望）可能与解释更相关高等教育辍学。这项研究前瞻性地调查了208名荷兰体育学院学生在其职业计划开始之前所引起的与内容相关的期望是否与随后的辍学和学习成绩有关。我们的结果表明，辍学学生的期望成绩没有差异（即使他们的职前GPA有所差异）。此外，他们对项目开始时与内容相关的期望并非来自成功的学生，也不是那么不切实际。尽管如此，当回顾性地询问时，仍有50％的学生回答有关课程不合适。这表明期望不足的回顾性报告可能不会反映出在启动该程序之前的期望不足。取而代之的是，高等教育课程可能无法兑现成功学生和后来失败学生的期望，使成功学生感到惊喜，而对失败学生则感到不满意。这表明对期望不足的回顾性报告可能无法反映出在开始计划之前的期望不足。取而代之的是，高等教育课程可能无法兑现成功学生和后来失败学生的期望，使成功学生感到惊喜，而对失败学生则感到不满意。这表明期望不足的回顾性报告可能不会反映出在启动该程序之前的期望不足。取而代之的是，高等教育课程可能无法兑现成功学生和后来失败学生的期望，使成功学生感到惊喜，而对失败学生则感到不满意。