This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory’s specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users’ specific intentions.

中文翻译：

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战略过程中的方案：能力和约束的框架

本文对情景技术作为一种旨在通过考虑多种可能的未来状态来应对不确定性的策略和预见性工具的纯粹理性观点提出了挑战。本文采用了一种基于能力的视图，该视图允许识别和构造场景技术中超出预期属性的隐藏的，突现的属性。所建议的框架区分了（1）组织想要的和其目标有关的能力，（2）产生组织利益的能力，（3）与组织无关但与个人利益无关的能力。此外，还讨论了使用场景时的限制。支付能力理论的特定视角表明，此类属性的出现取决于用户的特定意图。