This article argues that migration has evolved into a conflictual parameter in the institutionalization of the EU-Turkey relationship and that it plays a significant role in the formation of instability as the main feature of this institutionalization process. Moreover, migration in its nature is a dynamic/non-linear social phenomenon which makes an institutionalization process highly open to exogenous effects and quite unstable. Therefore, contrary to the mainstream institutionalist approaches, this case study argues that an institutionalization process does not necessarily bring about continuity in the wake of an exogenous shock, but if an institutionalization process contains conflictual parameters (like the migration issue) with a strong connection with endogenous and exogenous dynamics, instability/change might become the main feature of it. From this point of view, this study anticipates that the migration-like dynamic parameters will keep the European integration as an ongoing process in the future, and its structure will be subject to a continual change. Furthermore, this change-oriented institutionalization might make the EU more heterogeneous and multi-dimensional in time. Related to this anticipation, even though the migration issue plays an inhibitor role in Turkey’s accession process to the EU at the moment, it might play a catalyst role in this process by making a differentiated membership a more reasonable option for both the EU countries and Turkey in a more differentiated EU structure in the future.

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分析不稳定作为制度化进程的未来：欧盟，土耳其和移民问题

本文认为，移民已成为欧盟-土耳其关系制度化中的一个冲突参数，并且在这种制度化过程的主要特征-不稳定的形成中起着重要作用。此外，移民本质上是一种动态/非线性的社会现象，这使得制度化过程极易受到外来影响，而且相当不稳定。因此，与主流的制度主义方法相反，本案例研究认为，制度化过程并不一定会在受到外来冲击后带来连续性，但是如果制度化过程包含冲突参数（例如移民问题）并且与内源性和外源性动力学，不稳定/变化可能成为其主要特征。从这个角度来看，这项研究预计，类似移民的动态参数将使欧洲一体化在未来继续进行，其结构将不断变化。此外，这种以变革为导向的制度化可能会使欧盟在时间上更加异质化和多维化。与这一预期相关的是，即使目前移民问题在土耳其加入欧盟的过程中发挥了抑制作用，也可能通过使有区别的成员资格成为欧盟国家和土耳其的更合理选择而在这一过程中起到催化剂的作用未来的欧盟结构将更加差异化。其结构将不断变化。此外，这种以变革为导向的制度化可能会使欧盟在时间上更加异质化和多维化。与这一预期相关的是，即使目前移民问题在土耳其加入欧盟的过程中发挥了抑制作用，也可能通过使有区别的成员资格成为欧盟国家和土耳其的更合理选择而在这一过程中起到催化剂的作用未来的欧盟结构将更加差异化。其结构将不断变化。此外，这种以变革为导向的制度化可能会使欧盟在时间上更加异质化和多维化。与这一预期相关的是，即使目前移民问题在土耳其加入欧盟的过程中发挥了抑制作用，也可能通过使有区别的成员资格成为欧盟国家和土耳其的更合理选择而在这一过程中起到催化剂的作用未来的欧盟结构将更加差异化。