In the present work, a set of future studies were implemented in order to answer the following question: What will the future scenarios be within the next 5 years regarding new technologies in the public education sector in Uruguay? For this purpose, two panels (consisting of 20 participants internal to the programme and 25 international experts external to the programme) were set up to conduct a Delphi study. In addition, a historical analysis of the use of Internet resources at schools (traffic and users connected to the network) was developed. This section of the study brought us the following findings: Primary and middle public school centres have experienced an exponential growth in Internet use as measured by traffic downloads and uploads, as well as by connections. Traffic doubled every 1.5 years, and connections had doubled roughly every year in the period from 2011 to 2015.The study integrated the Delphi results and the analysis of Internet use as a method for prospective scenario planning, based on which four main possible educational and technological scenarios for 2020 were identified. This approach allowed us to define the possible technological future for the national education and technology policy.We found that the key challenges were not technological, but social and cultural factors. Some of the challenges to be explored are (1) How can we understand the role(s) of teachers better?, (2) can we rethink how technology is being used, adopted and adapted in learning environments?, and (3) what systemic changes are needed to respond these possible scenarios better through policy development? The findings suggest that problems and challenges presented by new technological innovations in education are not solved by more technology.Finally, we consider an approach such as this could work as a framework to help develop public education and technology policies in other countries with middle to high incomes that have strong orientations toward public education, including much of Europe.

中文翻译：

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2020年计划斋月（Ceibal 2020）：技术和教育的未来方案-以乌拉圭公共教育系统为例

在当前的工作中，为了回答以下问题，进行了一系列的未来研究：乌拉圭公共教育部门在未来5年内关于新技术的未来前景如何？为此，成立了两个小组（由计划内部的20名参与者和计划外部的25名国际专家组成）进行德尔菲研究。此外，还对学校（交通和连接到网络的用户）使用互联网资源进行了历史分析。该研究的这一部分为我们带来了以下发现：从流量下载和上传以及连接情况来看，中小学公立学校中心的Internet使用呈指数增长。流量每1.5年增加一倍，在2011年至2015年期间，网络连接每年大约翻一番。该研究结合了Delphi的结果和对互联网使用的分析作为前瞻性情景规划的方法，在此基础上确定了2020年的四种主要教育和技术情景。这种方法使我们能够为国家教育和技术政策定义可能的技术未来。我们发现关键的挑战不是技术，而是社会和文化因素。需要探索的一些挑战是：（1）我们如何更好地理解教师的角色？（2）我们可以重新考虑在学习环境中如何使用，采用和适应技术吗？，（3）需要哪些系统性更改才能通过政策制定更好地应对这些可能的情况？研究结果表明，更多的技术并不能解决教育中的新技术创新所带来的问题和挑战，最后，我们认为这样的方法可以作为框架，以帮助在其他中高水平国家制定公共教育和技术政策对公共教育有强烈倾向的收入，包括欧洲大部分地区。