Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardio-vascular problems, diabetes, cancer, multi-skeletal disorders, depression, neurologic disorders and many more are the major cause of health problems and death in OECD countries. These diseases develop earlier among underprivileged people. Chronic-degenerative diseases, however, are to a large degree avoidable. In our foresight project FRESHER (FORESIGHT AND MODELLING FOR EUROPEAN HEALTH POLICY AND REGULATION) we discuss policy options with stakeholders from health, research, care, patient organisations, insurances and policy-making that go beyond the usual activities and pose alternatives that promise to be more successful. From an analysis of trends that affect NCD development far beyond the usual determinants of tobacco and alcohol consumption, salt, sugar and fat intake or sedentary behaviour the most relevant and significant trends are combined to four scenarios depicting possible futures. The options for alternatives presented contribute to the discussion of policies for the future in a comprehensive approach to “health in all policies” in the EU. NCDs are not a matter of medicine and health only. Thus the traditional approach of health policy has to be extended. Out of the box thinking is needed to pay tribute to the complexity of future health systems that need to include aspects like equity, literacy, mobility or urban planning. A systematic and holistic approach is required to address all drivers and determinants leading to a healthy life and well-being.

中文翻译：

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欧洲健康未来的驱动因素，趋势和情景。FRESHER项目的印象

非传染性疾病（NCD），例如心血管问题，糖尿病，癌症，多骨骼疾病，抑郁症，神经系统疾病等，是经合组织国家健康问题和死亡的主要原因。这些疾病在贫困人群中较早发展。然而，慢性退行性疾病在很大程度上是可以避免的。在我们的前瞻性项目FRESHER（欧洲健康政策和法规的参考与模型）中，我们与健康，研究，护理，患者组织，保险和政策制定等利益相关者讨论政策选择，这些选择超出了常规活动范围，并提出了有望成为更成功。通过对影响非传染性疾病发展的趋势进行分析后，发现其影响远远超出了烟草和酒精消费的通常决定因素，盐，糖和脂肪摄入量或久坐行为最相关和最显着的趋势结合在一起，描绘了四种可能的未来情景。提出的替代方案有助于以欧盟“所有政策中的健康”的综合方法来讨论未来的政策。非传染性疾病不仅是医学和健康问题。因此，必须扩大传统的卫生政策方法。需要开箱即用的思想来颂扬未来卫生系统的复杂性，该系统需要包括公平，识字，流动性或城市规划等方面。需要一种系统的整体方法来解决所有导致健康生活和福祉的驱动因素和决定因素。提出的替代方案有助于以欧盟“所有政策中的健康”的综合方法来讨论未来的政策。非传染性疾病不仅是医学和健康问题。因此，必须扩大传统的卫生政策方法。需要开箱即用的思想来颂扬未来卫生系统的复杂性，该系统需要包括公平，识字，流动性或城市规划等方面。需要一种系统的整体方法来解决所有导致健康生活和福祉的驱动因素和决定因素。提出的替代方案有助于以欧盟“所有政策中的健康”的综合方法来讨论未来的政策。非传染性疾病不仅是医学和健康问题。因此，必须扩大传统的卫生政策方法。需要开箱即用的思想来颂扬未来卫生系统的复杂性，该系统需要包括公平，识字，流动性或城市规划等方面。需要一种系统的整体方法来解决所有导致健康生活和福祉的驱动因素和决定因素。需要开箱即用的思想来颂扬未来卫生系统的复杂性，该系统需要包括公平，识字，流动性或城市规划等方面。需要一种系统的整体方法来解决所有导致健康生活和福祉的驱动因素和决定因素。需要开箱即用的思想来颂扬未来卫生系统的复杂性，该系统需要包括公平，识字，流动性或城市规划等方面。需要一种系统的整体方法来解决所有导致健康生活和福祉的驱动因素和决定因素。