This paper extends Crime Pattern Theory, proposing a theoretical framework which aims to explain how offenders’ previous routine activity locations influence their future offence locations. The framework draws on studies of individual level crime location choice and location choice in non-criminal contexts, to identify attributes of prior activities associated with the selection of the location for future crime. We group these attributes into two proposed mechanisms: reliability and relevance. Offenders are more likely to commit crime where they have reliable knowledge that is relevant to the particular crime. The perceived reliability of offenders’ knowledge about a potential crime location is affected by the frequency, recency and duration of their prior activities in that location. Relevance reflects knowledge of a potential crime location’s crime opportunities and is affected by the type of behaviour, type of location and timing of prior activities in that location. We apply the framework to generate testable hypotheses to guide future studies of crime location choice and suggest directions for further theoretical and empirical work. Understanding crime location choice using this framework could also help inform policing investigations and crime prevention strategies.

中文翻译：

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基于意识空间的犯罪地点选择估计框架

本文扩展了犯罪模式理论，提出了一个理论框架，旨在解释犯罪者以前的常规活动场所如何影响其未来的犯罪场所。该框架利用对个人犯罪地点选择和非犯罪背景下地点选择的研究，以确定与未来犯罪地点选择相关的先前活动的属性。我们将这些属性分为两种建议的机制：可靠性和相关性。如果犯罪者拥有与特定犯罪相关的可靠知识，他们更有可能犯罪。犯罪者对潜在犯罪地点的知识的感知可靠性受其在该地点先前活动的频率，新近度和持续时间的影响。相关性反映了对潜在犯罪地点的犯罪机会的了解，并受行为类型，地点类型和该地点先前活动的时间影响。我们应用该框架生成可检验的假设，以指导犯罪地点选择的未来研究，并为进一步的理论和实证工作提供指导。使用此框架了解犯罪地点的选择还可以帮助指导警务调查和犯罪预防策略。