The enduring deadlock in peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has created a special, “frozen” phase in the conflict cycle. Several cases of skirmishes, escalating in 2016 during the Four-Day War, demonstrate the security threat the conflict represents. Simultaneously, ongoing unsuccessful peace talks and escalations and de-escalations of violence at the line of contact indicate the failure to transform the conflict in either a peaceful or a violent way. This paper seeks to identify conditions contributing to the stalemate of the conflict. The key actors contributing to the conflict’s “frozenness” are the political leadership of Armenia and Azerbaijan and third parties represented by the Minsk Group. The failure to achieve a peaceful transformation is given by political hostilities carried out through negative labelling, uncompromising statements and the self-victimisation of the belligerents. Such activities deepen the grievances within the Azerbaijani and Armenian populaces, which in response to such behaviour does not support any concessions in negotiations. At the same time, the Minsk Group does not provide any concrete model for a peaceful settlement nor does it apply pressure on the belligerents to grant concessions. A violent transformation of the conflict is not possible due to the presence of third parties in the region which deter the belligerents from full-scale war. These findings indicate that in order to avoid the future failure of negotiations and violent escalations at the line of contact, the political leaderships of Armenia and Azerbaijan need to withdraw from mutual hostilities, the negotiation agenda and framework need to be changed and the third parties involved have to actively participate in the peace process.

中文翻译：

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纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫：解决冻结冲突的障碍

亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆之间关于纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫的和平谈判长期陷入僵局，在冲突周期中创造了一个特殊的“冻结”阶段。2016 年四日战争期间发生的几起小规模冲突事件表明冲突所代表的安全威胁。同时，持续不成功的和谈以及接触线上的暴力升级和降级表明未能以和平或暴力方式转变冲突。本文旨在确定导致冲突陷入僵局的条件。导致冲突“僵化”的主要行动者是亚美尼亚和阿塞拜疆的政治领导人以及以明斯克集团为代表的第三方。通过负面标签、不妥协的声明和交战方的自我伤害进行的政治敌对行动导致未能实现和平转型。此类活动加深了阿塞拜疆和亚美尼亚民众的不满，他们不支持在谈判中做出任何让步来回应此类行为。同时，明斯克集团没有为和平解决提供任何具体模式，也没有向交战方施加压力以给予让步。由于该地区存在阻止交战方全面战争的第三方，冲突的暴力转变是不可能的。这些调查结果表明，为了避免未来谈判失败和接触线上的暴力升级，