In 2018, both the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) will mark the 70th anniversary of the establishment of their separate governments. This is a sad reminder that much remains frozen on the Korean Peninsula. For one, families have been separated and communication channels between the two Korean populations are almost non-existent. Yet, stability is precariously established by an Armistice that was signed in 1953 and that was never replaced by a permanent peace mechanism. Moreover, North Korea’s rapid nuclear development has contributed to tensions and uncertainties, and the Six-Party Talks, originally designed to ensure the denuclearisation of the peninsula, has been at a standstill for almost 10 years. The Korean story is thus a prime case to study the dynamics of a frozen conflict and this article contributes to the existing literature and analysis of frozen conflicts by suggesting looking at peaceful and violent thawing, as well as conflict withering. In order to so, the paper focuses on three crucial levels: (1) the micro level, the impact of the Armistice in light of today’s Koreas as opposed to their status and standing at the end of the Korean War in 1953, (2) the meso level with geostrategic concerns concentrated over sectorial policies surrounding the Korean Peninsula in a globalised world, and (3) the macro level with the changing nature of security governance. It is argued that in a catch-22 motion, the thread of violent thawing maintains the conflict in its frozen state.

中文翻译：

---

在薄冰上穿线？朝鲜半岛冲突动态

2018年，大韩民国（ROK）和朝鲜民主主义人民共和国（DPRK）都将迎来各自政府成立70周年。这是一个悲哀的提醒，朝鲜半岛仍有许多地方被冻结。一方面，家庭已经分离，两个韩国人之间的沟通渠道几乎不存在。然而，1953 年签署的停战协定摇摇欲坠地建立了稳定，该协定从未被永久和平机制所取代。此外，朝鲜的核发展迅速加剧了紧张局势和不确定性，原本旨在确保半岛无核化的六方会谈已停滞近10年。因此，韩国故事是研究冻结冲突动态的主要案例，本文通过建议观察和平和暴力解冻以及冲突消退，对现有文献和对冻结冲突的分析做出了贡献。为此，本文重点关注三个关键层面：(1) 微观层面，考虑到今天的朝鲜与 1953 年朝鲜战争结束时的地位和立场，停战协议的影响，(2)具有地缘战略担忧的中观层面集中在全球化世界中围绕朝鲜半岛的部门政策，以及（3）随着安全治理性质变化的宏观层面。有人认为，在 catch-22 运动中，猛烈解冻的线索将冲突维持在冻结状态。