The “frozen” conflict between Moldova and its separatist Transnistrian region—which developed into a de facto state—is dynamic. Despite an active nation-building project to support Transnistria’s independence and a stated willingness to join Russia, Transnistria is juggling between Russia and Europe. While economically dependent on the former’s subsidies and security guarantees, Transnistrian economic ties with the West are growing strong. While most studies are interested in the geopolitical game and the role of external actors, this article argues for a complementary approach that links macro- with meso-level analysis through the role of externally oriented domestic agents. First, the article shows that Transnistria pursues dual alignment in order to survive and provide the population with public goods for which they need external resources. Although Transnistria relies heavily on its patron state, Russia, facing recurrent crisis and external constraints, it has to search for complementary sources of income. Dual alignment is the result of this “multiple asymmetric dependence.” Second, the article argues that local intermingled economic and political interests, embodied by businessmen with close ties not only to Russia but also to Europe, account for how this balancing act is sustained. These informal international brokers or “double agents” mobilize their political connections to support dual alignment while using their Western and Eastern business connections to consolidate their power in Transnistria. It is further argued that the role of international brokers embedded in Russian and European networks and engaging in cross-border cooperation helps understand why the Transnistrian frozen conflict seems to be withering.

中文翻译：

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国际经纪人在冻结冲突中的作用：德涅斯特河沿岸的案例

摩尔多瓦与其分离主义的德涅斯特河左岸地区（发展为事实上的国家）之间的“冻结”冲突是动态的。尽管有一个积极的国家建设项目来支持德涅斯特河沿岸地区的独立并表示愿意加入俄罗斯，但德涅斯特河沿岸地区正在俄罗斯和欧洲之间游刃有余。尽管在经济上依赖于前者的补贴和安全保障，德涅斯特河左岸与西方的经济联系正在日益加强。虽然大多数研究对地缘政治博弈和外部参与者的作用感兴趣，但本文主张采用一种互补的方法，通过面向外部的国内代理的作用将宏观与中观层面的分析联系起来。首先，文章表明德涅斯特河沿岸地区追求双重联盟以求生存并为民众提供他们需要外部资源的公共产品。尽管德涅斯特河沿岸严重依赖其赞助国俄罗斯，面临反复出现的危机和外部限制，但它必须寻找互补的收入来源。双重对齐是这种“多重不对称依赖”的结果。其次，文章认为，当地混合的经济和政治利益，体现在不仅与俄罗斯而且与欧洲有着密切联系的商人，是这种平衡行为如何得以维持的原因。这些非正式的国际经纪人或“双重代理人”动员他们的政治联系来支持双重结盟，同时利用他们的东西方商业联系来巩固他们在德涅斯特河沿岸的权力。