A reduced-form investigation reveals that the relationship between the level of inflation and its volatility in the USA may not have been monotonic. This paper quantifies a reversal of the relationship by considering linear and nonlinear estimation methodologies on the trend and volatility of inflation. Our findings suggest that the spikes in inflation volatility in the period after 2008 are related to transitory, rather than permanent movements in inflation, suggesting that the US Great Moderation period may be merely on hold, rather than over with.

中文翻译：

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大萧条过后的通货膨胀率波动和通货膨胀

简化形式的调查显示，在美国，通货膨胀水平与其波动之间的关系可能并非单调。本文通过考虑通货膨胀趋势和波动率的线性和非线性估计方法来量化关系的逆转。我们的研究结果表明，2008年以后通胀率的飙升与暂时性通胀相关，而不是与通胀的永久性波动相关，这表明美国大萧条时期可能只是搁置而不是结束。