In this paper, we evaluate macroeconomic forecasts for Austria and analyze the effects of external assumptions on forecast errors. We consider the growth rates of real GDP and the demand components as well as the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. The analyses are based on univariate measures like RMSE and Theil’s inequality coefficient and also on the Mahalanobis distance, a multivariate measure that takes the variances of and the correlations between the variables into account. We compare forecasts generated by the two leading Austrian economic research institutes, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) and the Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), and additionally consider the forecasts produced by the European Commission. The results indicate that there are no systematic differences between the forecasts of the two Austrian institutes, neither for the traditional measures nor for the Mahalanobis distance. Generally, forecasts become more accurate with a decreasing forecast horizon, as expected; they are unbiased for forecast horizons of less than a year considering traditional measures and for the shortest forecast horizon considering the Mahalanobis distance. Finally, we find that mistakes in external assumptions, in particular regarding EU GDP and the oil price, translate into forecast errors for GDP and inflation.

中文翻译：

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评估奥地利的经济预测

在本文中，我们评估了奥地利的宏观经济预测，并分析了外部假设对预测误差的影响。我们考虑了实际GDP的增长率和需求构成以及通货膨胀率和失业率。这些分析基于RMSE和Theil的不平等系数等单变量测度，也基于马氏距离（一种将变量的方差和变量之间的相关性考虑在内的多变量量度）。我们比较了两个领先的奥地利经济研究所，高级研究所（IHS）和奥地利经济研究所（WIFO）生成的预测，此外还考虑了欧盟委员会的预测。结果表明，两个奥地利研究所的预测之间在系统上和传统测量之间以及马氏距离上都没有系统的差异。通常，随着预期的降低，预测变得更加准确。考虑到传统方法，对于不到一年的预测范围，对于考虑到马氏距离的最短预测范围，它们没有偏见。最后，我们发现外部假设的错误，特别是关于欧盟GDP和石油价格的错误，转化为GDP和通货膨胀的预测错误。考虑到传统方法，对于不到一年的预测范围，对于考虑到马氏距离的最短预测范围，它们没有偏见。最后，我们发现外部假设的错误，特别是关于欧盟GDP和石油价格的错误，转化为GDP和通货膨胀的预测错误。考虑到传统方法，对于不到一年的预测范围，对于考虑到马氏距离的最短预测范围，它们没有偏见。最后，我们发现外部假设的错误，特别是关于欧盟GDP和石油价格的错误，转化为GDP和通货膨胀的预测错误。