This study develops a thick modelling tool for real private consumption, with a conditional forecasting application to the euro area. Several equations from thousands of error correction models, always including labour income, non-labour income, financial wealth and non-financial wealth as determinants, are selected from predetermined in-sample and out-of-sample criteria. Our thick model estimates show that income effects differ between labour and non-labour income and that their (relative) importance varies over time. This implies that labour and non-labour income should both be on the radar of policy makers and modellers.

中文翻译：

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丰富的收入和财富效应模型：对欧元区私人消费的预测应用

这项研究开发了用于实际私人消费的厚模型工具，并将其有条件地应用于欧元区。从预定的样本内和样本外标准中选择了数千种纠错模型中的几个方程，这些方程总是包括劳动收入，非劳动收入，金融财富和非金融财富作为决定因素。我们粗略的模型估计表明，劳动收入和非劳动收入之间的收入影响是不同的，并且它们（相对）的重要性会随时间而变化。这意味着，劳动者和非劳动者的收入都应引起决策者和建模者的注意。