Human error is a significant factor contributing to accidents during oil offloading at oil terminals. Fuzzy cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) is one of the applicable methods to estimate human error probability (HEP). However, the currently used fuzzy CREAM models have issues which weaken the quality of HEP results. Both the max-min fuzzy CREAM and the weighted fuzzy CREAM neglect the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule; besides, the max-min fuzzy CREAM focuses only on the maximum and minimum input data and ignores their weights. Therefore, this paper presents a modified fuzzy CREAM to address all these issues to strengthen the quality of HEP estimation. The proposed approach employs fuzzy degree of each common performance condition (CPC), the weight of each CPC, and the compatibility degree of each activated fuzzy if-then rule together to calculate HEP. The proposed approach is applied for HEP estimation in an oil offloading operation at the selected oil terminal. The final HEP value is estimated at 8.929 × 10⁻³. It is concluded that the proposed fuzzy CREAM model can provide more reliable results.

中文翻译：

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一种改进的人为可靠性分析方法，用于估计石油码头卸货作业中人为错误概率

人为错误是导致石油码头卸油过程中发生事故的重要因素。模糊认知可靠性和错误分析方法（CREAM）是估计人为错误概率（HEP）的适用方法之一。然而，目前使用的模糊 CREAM 模型存在削弱 HEP 结果质量的问题。max-min 模糊 CREAM 和加权模糊 CREAM 都忽略了每个激活的模糊 if-then 规则的兼容程度；此外，最大最小模糊 CREAM 仅关注最大和最小输入数据而忽略它们的权重。因此，本文提出了一种改进的模糊 CREAM 来解决所有这些问题，以加强 HEP 估计的质量。所提出的方法采用每个共同性能条件（CPC）的模糊度，每个 CPC 的权重，和每个激活的模糊 if-then 规则的兼容度一起计算 HEP。所提出的方法适用于所选石油码头卸油作业中的 HEP 估计。最终的 HEP 值估计为 8.929 × 10^－3．得出的结论是，所提出的模糊 CREAM 模型可以提供更可靠的结果。