Climate change and other trends in streamflow observations in Australian forested catchments since 1970,Hydrological Processes

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Climate change and other trends in streamflow observations in Australian forested catchments since 1970
Hydrological Processes ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-04 , DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13999
R. Willem Vervoort ₁ , Michaela M. Dolk ₂ , Floris F. Ogtrop ₁

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The effect of climate change on water resources has been an area of continued research, especially in Australia. Previous studies have suggested significant trends in rainfall, and these are amplified causing larger changes in streamflow. However, most of the previous analysis was based on annual time scales or modelled data and did not account for changes in land cover, which could interact with changes in climate. Climate data and streamflow data between 1970 and 2010 from 13 mostly forested small catchments (<250 km²) in Australia were analysed for trends. Non‐parametric Mann‐Kendall trend analysis, generalized additive mixed modelling and rainfall‐runoff modelling were combined for the analysis. This indicates consistent increases in maximum temperature and varied decreases in rainfall. The streamflow in the studied catchments indicated small decreases in streamflow, which amplified observed trends in the rainfall. In general, overall decreases are much smaller than suggested in earlier research.

中文翻译：

自1970年以来澳大利亚森林流域的气候变化和流量观测的其他趋势

气候变化对水资源的影响一直是持续研究的领域，特别是在澳大利亚。先前的研究表明降雨有明显的趋势，并且这些趋势被放大，导致流量变化较大。但是，以前的大多数分析都是基于年度时间尺度或模型数据，并未考虑土地覆盖的变化，而这可能与气候变化发生相互作用。1970年至2010年期间13个森林茂密的小流域（<250 km ²）在澳大利亚进行了趋势分析。非参数Mann-Kendall趋势分析，广义加性混合模型和降雨径流模型相结合进行分析。这表明最高温度持续升高，而降雨却有所减少。研究流域的水流量表明水流量略有下降，这放大了观测到的降雨趋势。通常，总体下降幅度要比早期研究建议的要小得多。

更新日期：2021-01-19

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