Abstract Robust structural design requires joint consideration of both aleatory (random) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty. In a multi-objective decision-making context, aleatory uncertainties are associated with uncertainty inherent to the built environment, whereas epistemic uncertainties accrue due to imperfect representation of decision maker values. This paper presents a systematic decision framework for combining treatment of these types of uncertainties using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM). Probabilistic descriptions of the performance of various alternative structural design configurations are combined with decision maker defined utility functions (indifference curves) that are subjected to epistemic uncertainty, supporting assessment of the sensitivity of the decision analysis results to various sources of error. The proposed decision analysis model allows full and consistent representation of all relevant uncertainties, multiple decision maker utilities, alternative design configurations, and alternative decision criteria. A demonstration identifies the optimal of 12 alternative configurations of a nine-story office building with the decision variables of building damage and business interruption cost, casualty cost, and CO2 emission cost under aleatory and epistemic uncertainties.

中文翻译：

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随机和认知不确定性下基础设施设计的多目标系统可靠性方法

摘要 稳健的结构设计需要同时考虑偶然（随机）和认知（缺乏知识）的不确定性。在多目标决策环境中，偶然的不确定性与建筑环境固有的不确定性有关，而认知不确定性则是由于决策者价值观的不完美表现而产生的。本文提出了一个系统的决策框架，用于使用一阶可靠性方法 (FORM) 结合处理这些类型的不确定性。各种替代结构设计配置的性能的概率描述与决策者定义的效用函数（无差异曲线）相结合，这些函数受到认知不确定性的影响，支持评估决策分析结果对各种错误来源的敏感性。建议的决策分析模型允许完整和一致地表示所有相关的不确定性、多个决策者效用、替代设计配置和替代决策标准。一个演示确定了九层办公楼的 12 种替代配置中的最优配置，其中决策变量为建筑物损坏和业务中断成本、伤亡成本以及在偶然和认知不确定性下的二氧化碳排放成本。