We follow the United Nations Sendai (2015) [1] framework for the reduction of disaster risk to go beyond traditional impactmeasures and compute the Sendai targets for individual risk and property risk. We show that individual risk is “very likely” falling between 1970 and 2019 while property risk is “likely” falling between 1980 and 2019; additionally, the related financial risk, faced by insurers, is increasing over the same period with “virtually certainty”. We underscore the greater burden befalling developing economies over the long run, since individual and property risk are respectively 2 and 3 times larger than in the OECD. Singular assessments for Bangladesh, Switzerland and the USA are used to showmelioration and convergence but also the limits of our global analysis.

我们遵循联合国减少灾害风险的仙台（2015）[1]框架，超越了传统的影响措施，并计算了仙台针对个人风险和财产风险的目标。我们显示，个人风险“很有可能”在1970年至2019年之间下降，而财产风险“可能”在1980年至2019年之间下降；此外，保险公司面临的相关金融风险在同一时期以“几乎确定性”的程度在增加。我们强调，从长远来看，发展中经济体将承受更大的负担，因为个人和财产风险分别是经合组织的2倍和3倍。对孟加拉国，瑞士和美国进行的单项评估用于显示改进和趋同，但也显示了我们全球分析的局限性。