Originally proposed as an alternative to traditional energy planning methodology in the 1970s, backcasting is increasingly applied in futures studies related to sustainability, as it is viewed as a natural step in operationalizing sustainable development. This futures study is concerned with data-driven smart sustainable urbanism as an instance of sustainable urban development—a strategic approach to achieving the long-term goals of urban sustainability. This is at the core of backcasting, which typically defines criteria for a desirable (sustainable) future and builds a set of feasible and logical pathways between the state of the future and the present. This paper reviews, discusses, and justifies the methodological framework applied in the futures study. This aims to analyze, investigate, and develop a novel model for data-driven smart sustainable cities of the future as a form of transformative change towards sustainability. This paper corroborates that the backcasting approach—as applied in the futures study—is well-suited for long-term urban problems and sustainability solutions due to its normative, goal-oriented, and problem-solving character. It also suggests that case study research is the most effective way to underpin and increase the feasibility of future visions. Indeed, the case study approach as a research strategy facilitates the investigation and understanding of the underlying principles in the real-world phenomena involved in the construction of the future vision in the backcasting study. The novelty of this work lies in the integration of a set of principles underlying several normative backcasting approaches with descriptive case study design to devise a framework for strategic urban planning whose core objective is clarifying which city model is desired and working towards that goal. Visionary images of a long-term future based on normative backcasting can spur innovative thinking about and accelerate the movement towards sustainability. The proposed framework serves to help researchers in analyzing, investigating, and developing future models of sustainable urbanism, smart urbanism, and smart sustainable urbanism, as well as to support policymakers and facilitate and guide their actions with respect to transformative changes towards sustainability based on empirical research.

中文翻译：

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未来研究的方法框架：将规范性的后推方法与描述性案例研究设计相结合，以战略数据驱动的智能可持续城市规划

反向广播最初是在1970年代作为传统能源计划方法的替代方法提出的，而反向广播在与可持续性相关的未来研究中越来越多地被应用，因为它被视为实施可持续发展的自然步骤。这项未来研究关注数据驱动的智能可持续城市主义，作为可持续城市发展的一个实例，这是实现城市可持续性长期目标的一种战略方法。这是回播的核心，通常会定义理想（可持续）未来的标准，并在未来状态和当前状态之间建立一组可行的逻辑路径。本文回顾，讨论并论证了在期货研究中应用的方法框架。目的是分析，调查，并为以数据驱动的未来智能可持续发展城市开发一种新颖的模型，作为向可持续性转变的一种形式。本文证实了在未来研究中应用的后推方法由于其规范性，面向目标和解决问题的特性，非常适合于长期的城市问题和可持续性解决方案。它还表明，案例研究是巩固和增加未来愿景可行性的最有效方法。确实，案例研究方法作为一种研究策略，可以促进对落后现象研究中构建未来愿景所涉及的现实世界现象的基本原理的研究和理解。这项工作的新颖之处在于，将几种规范性倒推方法基础的一组原则与描述性案例研究设计相结合，以设计出战略性城市规划框架，其核心目标是明确所需的城市模型并朝着该目标努力。基于规范性的预测，对远景的远见卓识可以激发创新思维，并加快实现可持续发展的步伐。拟议的框架可帮助研究人员分析，研究和开发可持续城市主义，智慧城市主义和智慧可持续城市主义的未来模型，并在基于经验的基础上支持政策制定者并促进和指导他们朝着可持续性的变革性转变采取行动。研究。