A severe El Niño event in 2015/16 decimated an important share of Papua New Guinea's (PNG) local crop production, leaving 10 per cent of the population with significant food shortages. Lack of recent socio‐economic data and analysis of the country's rural population impeded efforts to plan and mitigate the ensuing food crisis. This paper presents the most recent poverty analysis in Papua New Guinea in nearly a decade, and a renewed effort to inform rural production, consumption and livelihood patterns in some of the country's most remote, lowland areas. We designed a rural household survey that collected detailed consumption and expenditure data to explore poverty prevalence and correlates of per capita household expenditure. Results suggest that approximately half of the sampled individuals live in households with total per capita expenditures below the poverty line. Climate shocks have significant and possibly long‐term consequences for household welfare. Households that experienced a drought in the last 5 years are associated with significantly lower per capita expenditures. Labour diversification, via migration, is associated with greater welfare. Households with at least one migrant member are associated with 13 per cent greater per capita expenditure.

中文翻译：

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巴布亚新几内亚低地的贫困分析强调了气候脆弱性和对收入灵活性的需求*

2015/16年度严重的厄尔尼诺事件使巴布亚新几内亚（PNG）的当地农作物产量下降了很大一部分，使10％的人口严重缺乏粮食。缺乏最新的社会经济数据和对该国农村人口的分析阻碍了计划和减轻随后的粮食危机的努力。本文介绍了近十年来巴布亚新几内亚的最新贫困状况分析，并做出了新的努力来告知该国一些最偏远的低地地区的农村生产，消费和生计方式。我们设计了一项农村家庭调查，该调查收集了详细的消费和支出数据，以探讨贫困发生率和人均家庭支出的相关性。结果表明，大约一半的抽样人口生活在人均总支出低于贫困线的家庭中。气候冲击会对家庭福利产生重大甚至长期的影响。最近五年遭受干旱的家庭与人均支出大大降低有关。通过移民进行的劳动力多样化与更大的福利相关。拥有至少一名移民成员的家庭的人均支出增加了13％。与更大的福利相关。拥有至少一名移民成员的家庭的人均支出增加了13％。与更大的福利相关。拥有至少一名移民成员的家庭的人均支出增加了13％。