The United States Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) uses probability surveys of hog owners to estimate quarterly hog inventories in the United States at the national and state levels. NASS also receives data from external sources. A panel of commodity experts forms the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The ASB establishes the NASS official estimates for each quarter by taking into account survey estimates and other relevant sources of information that are available in numerical and non‐numerical form. The aim of this article is to propose an estimation method of hog inventories by combining the NASS proprietary survey results, the hog transaction data, the past ASB panel expert analyses, biological dynamics, and the inter‐inventory relationship constraints. This approach downscales the official estimates to provide monthly estimates according to well‐defined biological growth patterns. The model developed in this study provides national estimates that may inform the quarterly reports.

中文翻译：

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以更好的时间分辨率对猪种群动态进行建模

美国农业部的国家农业统计局（NASS）使用生猪所有者的概率调查来估计美国在国家和州一级的季度生猪库存。NASS还从外部来源接收数据。由商品专家组成的小组组成了农业统计委员会（ASB）。ASB会考虑数字和非数字形式的调查估计值和其他相关信息源，以建立每个季度的NASS官方估计值。本文的目的是通过结合NASS专有的调查结果，生猪交易数据，过去的ASB专家组分析，生物学动态以及存货间的关系约束，提出一种生猪库存的估算方法。这种方法缩小了官方估算值，以根据明确的生物增长模式提供每月估算值。本研究开发的模型提供了可能会为季度报告提供依据的国家估计。