To reveal the effects of rainfall and runoff-yield conditions on runoff, the abrupt change of the correlation between rainfall and runoff is discussed. Then, according to the correlation between rainfall and runoff with the different rainfall states, the multivariate dynamic regression models of rainfall and runoff are constructed, and the effects of rainfall and runoff-yield conditions on runoff are analyzed. The results show that (1) the correlation between rainfall and runoff changed abruptly in 1980; (2) the rainfall changes lead to runoff reductions, and runoff decreased by 15.79% under the runoff-yield condition Ⅰ from 1959 to 1979, while it decreased by 8% under the runoff-yield condition Ⅱ from 1980 to 2013; (3) the change of the runoff-yield conditions lead to the runoff reduction of 41.16% from 1959 to 1979, while it leads to a decrease in runoff by 35.58% from 1980 to 2013.

为了揭示降雨和产流条件对径流的影响，讨论了降雨与径流相关性的突变。然后，根据降雨与径流与不同降雨状态的相关性，构建降雨与径流的多元动态回归模型，分析降雨和产流条件对径流的影响。结果表明：（1）1980年降雨与径流的相关性发生了突变；(2)降雨变化导致径流减少，1959-1979年产流条件Ⅰ径流减少15.79%，1980-2013年产径Ⅱ径流减少8%；(3) 1959—1979年产水量变化导致径流减少41.16%，