Energy-economic models are used to provide science-based decision support in many contexts; evaluating scenarios generated by these models is critical for establishing the credibility of the analyses these tools support. We propose a framework for evaluating energy system scenarios consisting of three parts – a qualitative storyline, quantitative metrics, and evaluation criteria. We apply this framework to the reference scenario for GCAM-USA, a version of the Global Change Analysis Model with state-level detail in the United States, focusing on the evolution of the electric power sector. We develop new visual analytic tools to facilitate evaluation of model outcomes in 51 sub-national regions, and demonstrate how scenario performance can be tracked and compared across four quantifications of the GCAM-USA reference scenario.

在许多情况下，能源经济模型用于提供基于科学的决策支持；评估由这些模型生成的方案对于建立这些工具支持的分析的可信度至关重要。我们提出了一个评估能源系统方案的框架，该框架包括三个部分：定性故事情节，定量指标和评估标准。我们将此框架应用于GCAM-USA的参考方案，GCAM-USA是全球变化分析模型的一个版本，在美国具有州级详细信息，重点关注电力行业的发展。我们开发了新的视觉分析工具，以促进对51个国家以下地区的模型结果进行评估，并演示了如何在GCAM-USA参考情景的四个量化范围内跟踪和比较情景性能。