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A probabilistic analysis of power generation adequacy towards a climate-neutral Europe
Energy Reports ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.egyr.2020.11.243
Victoria Guerrero-Mestre , Marta Poncela , Gianluca Fulli , Javier Contreras

Abstract Over the last decades, the actions aimed to realize an integrated pan-European electricity market brought about profound modifications on the physical, information and communication systems upon which the electricity delivery process occurs. In order to assess some of the techno-economic challenges relating to the single electricity market functioning, including the future needs of electricity, several dispatch models have been developed in recent years in Europe and the rest of the world. In particular, EUPowerDispatch, a minimum cost dispatch model, was originally developed to investigate the need for cross-border transmission investment in Europe. This paper proposes an improved version of EUPowerDispatch that aims at analysing the generation adequacy of the European electricity system in a probabilistic manner. For this purpose, planned and unplanned outages of all single conventional generating units are modelled. The former are optimally and timely allocated while the latter are stochastically generated with chronological Monte Carlo simulations. Data of wind and solar PV production from several meteorological years are accounted for as well as hydro series of run-of-river and natural inflows to the hydro reservoirs. The case study is composed of 33 European countries/regions which are linked through interconnectors. Indexes for the reliability assessment of electric power systems are calculated in order to study the generation adequacy of the European electricity system in 2025.

中文翻译:

面向气候中立的欧洲发电充足率的概率分析

摘要 在过去的几十年里,旨在实现综合泛欧电力市场的行动对电力输送过程发生的物理、信息和通信系统带来了深刻的改变。为了评估与单一电力市场运作相关的一些技术经济挑战,包括未来的电力需求,近年来在欧洲和世界其他地区开发了几种调度模型。特别是 EUPowerDispatch,一种最低成本调度模型,最初是为了调查欧洲跨境输电投资的需求而开发的。本文提出了 EUPowerDispatch 的改进版本,旨在以概率方式分析欧洲电力系统的发电充足率。以此目的,对所有单个常规发电机组的计划内和计划外停机进行建模。前者是最佳和及时分配的,而后者是通过按时间顺序的 Monte Carlo 模拟随机生成的。几个气象年的风能和太阳能光伏发电数据以及径流和自然流入水库的水力序列都被考虑在内。案例研究由 33 个欧洲国家/地区组成,这些国家/地区通过互连器连接在一起。计算电力系统可靠性评估指标,以研究2025年欧洲电力系统的发电充足率。前者是最佳和及时分配的,而后者是通过按时间顺序的 Monte Carlo 模拟随机生成的。几个气象年的风能和太阳能光伏发电数据以及径流和自然流入水库的水力序列都被考虑在内。案例研究由 33 个欧洲国家/地区组成,这些国家/地区通过互连器连接在一起。计算电力系统可靠性评估指标,以研究2025年欧洲电力系统的发电充足率。前者是最佳和及时分配的,而后者是通过按时间顺序的 Monte Carlo 模拟随机生成的。几个气象年的风能和太阳能光伏发电数据以及径流和自然流入水库的水力序列都被考虑在内。案例研究由 33 个欧洲国家/地区组成,这些国家/地区通过互连器连接在一起。计算电力系统可靠性评估指标,以研究2025年欧洲电力系统的发电充足率。案例研究由 33 个欧洲国家/地区组成,这些国家/地区通过互连器连接在一起。计算电力系统可靠性评估指标,以研究2025年欧洲电力系统的发电充足率。案例研究由 33 个欧洲国家/地区组成,这些国家/地区通过互连器连接在一起。计算电力系统可靠性评估指标,以研究2025年欧洲电力系统的发电充足率。
更新日期:2020-11-01
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