The water-energy-food nexus concept is criticized as not yet fit for deeply integrated and contested governance agendas. One problem is how to achieve equitable risk governance and management where there is low consensus on priorities, poor inclusion and coordination of risk assessment procedures, and a weak emphasis placed on cross-scale and sectoral interactions over time. Participatory system dynamics modeling processes and analyses are promising approaches for such challenges but are currently underutilized in nexus research and policy. This paper shares our experience implementing one such analysis in the Mekong river basin, a paradigmatic example for international nexus research. Our transdisciplinary research design combined participatory causal loop diagramming processes, scenario modeling, and a new resilience analysis method to identify and test anticipated water-energy-food risks in Kratie and Stung Treng provinces in northeastern Cambodia. Our process generated new understanding of potential cross-sectoral and cross-level risks from major hydropower development in the region. The results showed expected trade-offs between national level infrastructure programs and local level food security, but also some new insights into the effects local population increases may have on local food production and consumption even before hydropower developments are built. The analysis shows the benefit of evaluating risks in the nexus at different system levels and over time because of how system dynamics and inflection points are taken into account. Additionally, our case illustrates the contribution participatory system-thinking processes can make to risk assessment procedures for complex systems transitions. We originally anticipated that any new capacity reported by partners and participants would come from our modeling results produced at the end of the process. However, participants in the modeling procedures also found the experience powerful the information sharing, rapid risk assessment, and personal learning it enabled. A lesson from our experience reinforces a message from the transdisciplinary research field that has not yet been absorbed into the nexus research and policy field wholeheartedly: we do not have to wait for perfect data and incontestable results before making a positive contribution to anticipating and responding to risks that emerge from nexus relations if we apply participatory and systems-thinking informed approaches.

中文翻译：

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支持利益相关者预测和应对湄公河水-能源-食品关系中的风险

水-能源-食物关系概念被批评为不适合深度整合和有争议的治理议程。一个问题是如何实现公平的风险治理和管理，因为对优先事项的共识不高，风险评估程序的包容性和协调性差，以及随着时间的推移对跨规模和部门互动的重视不够。参与式系统动力学建模过程和分析是应对此类挑战的有前途的方法，但目前在关联研究和政策中未得到充分利用。本文分享了我们在湄公河流域实施此类分析的经验，这是国际关系研究的范例。我们的跨学科研究设计结合了参与式因果循环图绘制过程、情景建模、以及一种新的弹性分析方法，用于识别和测试柬埔寨东北部桔井省和上丁省的预期水-能源-食品风险。我们的过程使我们对来自该地区主要水电开发的潜在跨部门和跨级别风险有了新的认识。结果显示了国家级基础设施计划与地方级粮食安全之间的预期权衡，但也对当地人口增长可能对当地粮食生产和消费产生的影响提供了一些新见解，甚至在水电开发建设之前。分析表明，由于如何考虑系统动态和拐点，因此在不同系统级别和随着时间的推移评估关系中的风险是有益的。此外，我们的案例说明了参与式系统思考过程可以为复杂系统转换的风险评估程序做出的贡献。我们最初预计合作伙伴和参与者报告的任何新容量都将来自我们在流程结束时产生的建模结果。然而，建模过程的参与者也发现了它带来的强大的信息共享、快速风险评估和个人学习体验。我们的经验教训强化了尚未全神贯注于关联研究和政策领域的跨学科研究领域的信息：