Seawater intrusion (SWI) is influenced by a variety of coastal phenomena, such as sea level rise (SLR), inundation of low-lying coastal regions, coastal storms, recharge rate variations, and pumping-induced saltwater upconing. Quantification of the influence of heterogeneity in the hydraulic conductivity field on SWI combined with SLR, land-surface inundation, and recharge rate variations in an unconfined aquifer is the main objective of the present study. The principal SWI indicators used in this study are length of the SWI wedge, seawater volume, and weighted average transition zone width. Characterized by the hydraulic conductivity field variance (σ_lnk²), the longitudinal correlation length (λ_x), the type of SLR (gradual or instantaneous SLR), the land-surface inundation consideration, and the recharge rate variations, 72 scenarios have been introduced, and for each of them, 50 sets of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields have been generated. Based on two approaches, namely ensemble Monte-Carlo and a Bayesian framework, it is demonstrated that: (1) the land-surface inundation consideration increases the SWI wedge length and the seawater volume regardless of the type of SLR, while it decreases the weighted average transition zone width in gradual SLR scenarios; (2) λ_x has a more significant impact on SWI characteristics compared to σ_lnk²; (3) increasing the degree of aquifer heterogeneity results in larger effective dispersion values; (4) Numerical bootstrapping suggests that the introduced Bayesian framework could be adopted as an alternative to computationally demanding methods such as bootstrapping for stochastic analysis of SWI; (5) Reliability analysis indicates the general belief that considering the heterogeneity decreases the SWI wedge length and the seawater volume, while increases the transition zone width compared to the homogeneous modeling is associated with huge amounts of uncertainty proportional to the aquifer heterogeneity itself; and (6) the results show that the impact of heterogeneity on the SWI indicators is similar under different recharge rates.

海水入侵（SWI）受多种沿海现象的影响，例如海平面上升（SLR），低洼沿海地区的洪水泛滥，沿海风暴，补给率变化以及抽水引起的盐水上冲。本研究的主要目的是量化水力传导率场中的非均质性对SWI的影响，并结合SLR，地面淹没和补给速率变化。本研究中使用的主要SWI指标是SWI楔块的长度，海水量和加权平均过渡带宽度。通过水力传导率场方差（其特征在于σ _{LN ķ} ²），所述纵向相关长度（λ _X），SLR的类型（渐进式或瞬时SLR），地表淹没考虑和补给率变化，引入了72种方案，并为每种方案生成了50套非均质的水力传导率场。基于蒙特卡洛综合和贝叶斯框架两种方法，证明：（1）不论SLR的类型如何，考虑到地面淹没增加SWI楔形长度和海水量，同时减小了加权系数逐步SLR场景中的平均过渡区域宽度；（2）λ _X对相比SWI特性的更显著冲击σ _{LN ķ} ²; （3）增加含水层非均质程度会导致更大的有效分散值；（4）数值自举表明，引入的贝叶斯框架可以替代计算要求较高的方法，如用于SWI随机分析的自举；（5）可靠性分析表明，人们普遍认为，与均质模型相比，考虑非均质性会减少SWI楔形长度和海水量，而增加过渡带宽度会带来与含水层非均质性成正比的大量不确定性；（6）结果表明，在不同补给率下，异质性对SWI指标的影响相似。