In 2020, vehicle sales decreased dramatically due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, several voices have demanded a vehicle subsidy similar to the “environmental subsidy” in Germany in 2009. The ecological efficiency of vehicle subsidies is controversially discussed. This paper establishes a prognosis of the long-term environmental impacts of various car subsidy concepts. The CO₂ emissions of the German car fleet impacted by the purchase subsidies are determined. A balance model of the CO₂ emissions of the whole car life cycle is developed. The implementation of different subsidy scenarios directly affects the forecasted composition of the vehicle population and, therefore, the resulting life-cycle assessment. All scenarios compensate the additional emissions required by the production pull-in within the considered period and, hence, reduce the accumulated CO₂ emissions until 2030. In the time period 2019–2030 and for a total number of 0.72 million subsidized vehicles—compensating the decrease due to the COVID-19 pandemic—savings of between 1.31 and 7.56 million t CO₂ eq. are generated compared to the scenario without a subsidy. The exclusive funding of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is most effective, with an ecological break-even in 2025.

中文翻译：

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补贴概念对德国汽车销售的环境影响

到2020年，由于COVID-19大流行，汽车销量急剧下降。因此，有几种声音要求与2009年德国的“环境补贴”相类似的汽车补贴。对汽车补贴的生态效率进行了有争议的讨论。本文建立了各种汽车补贴概念对环境长期影响的预测。确定受购置补贴影响的德国车队的CO ₂排放量。CO _2的平衡模型发展了整个汽车生命周期的排放。不同补贴方案的实施将直接影响车辆人口的预测构成，从而影响最终的生命周期评估。所有方案都补偿了在考虑的时间段内生产引入所需的额外排放，因此减少了直到2030年的累计CO ₂排放。在2019-2030年期间，总共有72万辆补贴车辆—补偿了由于COVID-19大流行而减少了排放量-节省了1.31到756万吨的CO ₂当量。与没有补贴的情况相比产生的。电池电动汽车（BEV）的独家资金是最有效的，到2025年将实现生态收支平衡。