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The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world’s forests to mitigate climate change
Nature Communications ( IF 16.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 , DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z
K. G. Austin , J. S. Baker , B. L. Sohngen , C. M. Wade , A. Daigneault , S. B. Ohrel , S. Ragnauth , A. Bean

Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5–$100/tCO2. We project 0.6–6.0 GtCOyr−1 in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2–393 billion USD yr−1, with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30–54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415–875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35–$100/tCO2, with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute ~10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO2 in 2055.



中文翻译:

种植,保护和管理世界森林以缓解气候变化的经济成本

森林对于稳定我们的气候至关重要,但是在空间,时间和利益相关者群体上的缓解成本仍然不确定。使用“全球木材模型”,我们预计在碳价为$ 5– $ 100 / tCO 2的情况下,在16个地区进行的4个减排活动的减排潜力和成本。我们预计,到2055年,全球减排量将达到0.6-6.0 GtCO yr -1,成本为2-393亿美元yr -1,避免的热带森林砍伐占总减排量的30-54%。较高的价格通过在温带和寒带生物群落中的轮作和森林管理活动,刺激了更大的缓解比例。到2055年,在$ 35– $ 100 / tCO 2的价格下,森林面积相对于基准线增加415–875 Mha,其中的人工林占这一增长的<7%。私人土地管理者承担的减缓成本不到总成本的四分之一。为了使森林贡献约10%的减排量,以将全球变暖限制在1.5°C,到2055年,碳价将需要达到$ 281 / tCO 2

更新日期:2020-12-01
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