Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are released from biogenic sources in a temperature-dependent manner. Consequently, Arctic ecosystems are expected to greatly increase their VOC emissions with ongoing climate warming, which is proceeding at twice the rate of global temperature rise. Here, we show that ongoing warming has strong, increasing effects on Arctic VOC emissions. Using a combination of statistical modeling on data from several warming experiments in the Arctic tundra and dynamic ecosystem modeling, we separate the impacts of temperature and soil moisture into direct effects and indirect effects through vegetation composition and biomass alterations. The indirect effects of warming on VOC emissions were significant but smaller than the direct effects, during the 14-y model simulation period. Furthermore, vegetation changes also cause shifts in the chemical speciation of emissions. Both direct and indirect effects result in large geographic differences in VOC emission responses in the warming Arctic, depending on the local vegetation cover and the climate dynamics. Our results outline complex links between local climate, vegetation, and ecosystem–atmosphere interactions, with likely local-to-regional impacts on the atmospheric composition.

挥发性有机化合物 (VOC) 从生物源中以温度依赖性方式释放。因此，随着气候变暖，北极生态系统的 VOC 排放量预计将大大增加，而气候变暖的速度是全球升温速度的两倍。在这里，我们表明持续变暖对北极 VOC 排放的影响越来越大。我们结合使用来自北极苔原的几个变暖实验的数据的统计模型和动态生态系统模型，将温度和土壤湿度的影响分为直接影响和通过植被组成和生物量变化的间接影响。在 14 年模型模拟期间，变暖对 VOC 排放的间接影响显着但小于直接影响。此外，植被变化也导致排放物的化学形态发生变化。直接和间接影响都会导致北极变暖中 VOC 排放响应的巨大地理差异，具体取决于当地植被覆盖和气候动态。我们的结果概述了当地气候、植被和生态系统-大气相互作用之间的复杂联系，以及可能对大气成分产生局部到区域影响的情况。