Biofuels, such as those derived from woody biomass, are being developed as one part of a renewable energy portfolio; however, it remains unclear if they can be sustainably developed. This manuscript demonstrates that the use of agent-based modeling (ABM) and life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) as part of an integrated methodology allows for robust assessment of the possible impacts. A case study of a proposed biorefinery in Ontonagon, Michigan, USA is conducted. In the case study, ABM is used to project the harvest decision making of forest owners and loggers to determine if they were willing to harvest and supply woody biomass to the biorefinery under several different price points. The results from the ABM were used to inform inventory data for projections of environmental impacts, along with projected impacts for economic and social concerns. The results of the case study show that while Ontonagon is a promising site for a biorefinery, the quantity of woody biomass delivered is a concern along with potential impacts to wetlands in the region. Ultimately, this case study suggestions that the integration of ABM and LCSA may be effective the assessment of other biorefineries.

正在开发生物燃料，例如木质生物质衍生的生物燃料，作为可再生能源组合的一部分；但是，尚不清楚它们是否可以可持续发展。该手稿表明，基于代理的建模（ABM）和生命周期可持续性评估（LCSA）作为集成方法的一部分，可以对可能的影响进行可靠的评估。对美国密歇根州Ontonagon拟建的生物精炼厂进行了案例研究。在案例研究中，ABM用于预测森林所有者和伐木者的采伐决策，以确定他们是否愿意以几种不同的价格来采伐并向生物精炼厂供应木质生物质。ABM的结果用于为清单数据提供环境影响的预测，以及对经济和社会关注的预计影响。案例研究的结果表明，虽然Ontonagon是一个有希望的生物炼油厂，但交付的木质生物质的数量以及对该地区湿地的潜在影响仍然令人担忧。最终，该案例研究表明，ABM和LCSA的整合可能有效评估其他生物炼油厂。