The main objective of this study is to first propose a novel integrated framework of fuzzy risk assessment model (FRAM), data envelopment analysis (DEA), and multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) approaches for route selection in multimodal transportation networks. In the FRAM phase, the magnitude calculation of risks was operated by decision makers, who can provide their opinions on the probability of occurrence and severity of consequences through linguistic variables and triangular fuzzy numbers for risk likelihood and severity scales. The Mamdani fuzzy rule-based inference system including the rule’s firing strengths is established to convert the membership degrees for each term of aggregated likelihood and severity scales into those for each term of the risk magnitude scale. In the DEA phase, precise and crisp risk magnitudes are characterized by a new defuzzifier based on the DEA algorithm, which is applied instead of classical defuzzification methods. The three decision criteria of transportation cost, transportation time, and overall risk magnitude are weighted by a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and then investigated based on the consensus of decision makers’ needs by a zero-one goal programming model, which is used to select the most appropriate multimodal route. Finally, the integrated approach is tested to reveal its capability and aptness using a real-world multimodal freight transportation route selection between Thailand and Cambodia. The proposed framework contributes to an easy-to-apply technique for risk predictability in multimodal transportation networks and provides powerful decision-making for the effective selection of the most appropriate alternative under the fuzzy context.

这项研究的主要目的是首先提出一种新颖的综合框架，用于在多式联运网络中选择路线，该模型包括模糊风险评估模型（FRAM），数据包络分析（DEA）和多准则决策（MCDM）方法。在FRAM阶段，风险的大小计算由决策者进行，决策者可以通过语言变量和风险可能性和严重性等级的三角模糊数，就后果发生的可能性和后果的严重性提供意见。建立了基于Mamdani模糊规则的推理系统，其中包括规则的触发强度，以将聚合的可能性和严重性等级的每个术语的隶属度转换为风险等级规模的每个术语的隶属度。在DEA阶段，精确而清晰的风险等级的特征在于，它采用了一种基于DEA算法的新型去模糊器，代替了传统的去模糊方法。通过模糊的层次分析法对运输成本，运输时间和总风险量的三个决策标准进行加权，然后通过决策者需求的共识，采用零一目标规划模型进行研究，该模型用于选择最合适的多式联运路线。最后，通过使用泰国和柬埔寨之间的现实世界多式联运货运路线选择，对综合方法进行了测试，以揭示其能力和适用性。