Abstract Solar photovoltaics in electricity distribution networks is often limited by the rise in voltage magnitude. The pre-connection voltage magnitude is an important factor that determines the hosting capacity. This paper studies to which extent details of the pre-connection voltage magnitude impact the hosting capacity. Extensive measurements of voltage magnitude and solar power production were obtained for a number of distribution networks with 10-minute resolution. The measured background voltage during the sunny-hours from the two-year measurements was used to obtain representative probability distribution functions. A guide for selecting the time-of-day (ToD) used is presented. The obtained probability distribution functions are applied to estimate the stochastic hosting capacity for a low-voltage distribution network with 83 customers. The impact of various details on the hosting capacity are studied. The results show that general knowledge about the range of the pre-connection voltage are essential for the hosting capacity estimation. Measurements over one year were shown to be sufficient to estimate the hosting capacity. The hosting capacity considering the entire day was underestimated by 11 % when compared to the 10 am – 2 pm sunny-hours. The proposed method is general and can be applied to other aleatory uncertainties and other types of hosting capacity studies.

中文翻译：

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配电网络测量背景电压变化、概率分布特征和太阳能光伏托管容量估计

摘要 配电网络中的太阳能光伏发电通常受到电压幅度上升的限制。预连接电压幅值是决定主机容量的重要因素。本文研究了预连接电压幅度的细节对托管容量的影响程度。对多个配电网络的电压幅度和太阳能发电量进行了广泛的测量，分辨率为 10 分钟。使用两年测量的晴天期间测量的背景电压来获得具有代表性的概率分布函数。提供了选择所用时间 (ToD) 的指南。将获得的概率分布函数用于估计具有 83 个客户的低压配电网络的随机托管容量。研究了各种细节对托管容量的影响。结果表明，关于预连接电压范围的一般知识对于主机容量估计是必不可少的。一年多的测量显示足以估计托管容量。与上午 10 点至下午 2 点的晴天相比，考虑到一整天的托管容量被低估了 11%。所提出的方法是通用的，可以应用于其他偶然的不确定性和其他类型的托管容量研究。与上午 10 点至下午 2 点的晴天相比，考虑到一整天的托管容量被低估了 11%。所提出的方法是通用的，可以应用于其他偶然的不确定性和其他类型的托管容量研究。与上午 10 点至下午 2 点的晴天相比，考虑到一整天的托管容量被低估了 11%。所提出的方法是通用的，可以应用于其他偶然的不确定性和其他类型的托管容量研究。