In this paper, we test the hypothesis of the Neolithic Demographic Transition in the Central Balkan Early Neolithic (6250–5300 BC) by applying the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to the set of more than 200 new radiocarbon dates from Serbia. The results suggest that there was an increase in population size after the first farmers arrived to the study area around 6250 BC. This increase lasted for approximately 250 years and was followed by a decrease in the population size proxy after 6000 BC, reaching its minimum around 5800 BC. This was followed by another episode of growth until 5600 BC when population size proxy rapidly declined, reaching the minimum again around 5500 BC. The reconstructed intrinsic growth rate value indicates that the first episode of growth might have been fuelled both by high fertility and migrations, potentially related to the effects of the 8.2 ky event. The second episode of population growth after 5800 BC was probably owing to the high fertility alone. It remains unclear what caused the episodes of population decrease.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Cross-disciplinary approaches to prehistoric demography'.

在本文中，我们通过对来自塞尔维亚的 200 多个新放射性碳日期的集合应用求和校准概率分布的方法来检验中巴尔干新石器时代早期（公元前 6250-5300 年）新石器时代人口转变的假设。结果表明，在公元前 6250 年左右第一批农民到达研究区域后，人口规模有所增加。这种增长持续了大约 250 年，随后在公元前 6000 年之后人口规模代理减少，在公元前 5800 年左右达到最小值。随后又出现了一次增长，直到公元前 5600 年人口规模代理迅速下降，在公元前 5500 年左右再次达到最小值。重建的内在增长率值表明，第一阶段的增长可能是由高生育率和移民推动的，可能与 8.2 ky 事件的影响有关。公元前 5800 年之后的第二次人口增长可能仅仅是由于高生育率。目前尚不清楚是什么导致了人口减少的事件。

本文是主题问题“史前人口学的跨学科方法”的一部分。