Abstract

Assessment of the potential for damage to community’s residential buildings exposed to extreme natural hazards is essential for measuring and optimising resilience enhancement strategies for communities. This paper develops a probability-based method to estimate the potential for damage and losses to a community’s residential building portfolio due to tropical cyclones (TC) by aggregating the performance of individual buildings quantitatively. The proposed approach reflects the fact that the total building damage of a community depends on the specific TC scenario and the correlation in performance of different individual buildings due to correlations in intensity in the wind field and common construction practices. The estimated damage potential, conditioned on the maximum TC wind speed, is determined from the TC fragilities. The mean value and variance of the cyclone-induced damage losses are estimated using an approximate closed-form approach. The applicability of the proposed method is demonstrated for a small coastal community in North Australia and the sensitivity of the estimated TC damage losses to the key characteristics of the TC wind field and building portfolio is investigated. It is found that correlations in building performance due to common TC demand and construction practices have a significant impact on losses to the community.

抽象的

评估遭受极端自然灾害破坏的社区住宅建筑物的潜在可能性，对于衡量和优化社区的弹性增强策略至关重要。本文开发了一种基于概率的方法，通过定量汇总单个建筑物的性能来估计由于热带气旋（TC）对社区住宅建筑物的损害和损失的可能性。所提出的方法反映了这样一个事实，即社区的总建筑破坏取决于特定的TC情景以及由于风场强度和常见的建筑实践的相关性而导致不同建筑物的性能之间的相关性。根据最大TC风速，估计的潜在损坏由TC脆弱性确定。气旋引起的破坏损失的平均值和方差是使用近似封闭形式的方法估算的。证明了该方法的适用性，适用于北澳大利亚州的一个小型沿海社区，并研究了估计的TC破坏损失对TC风场和建筑物组合的关键特征的敏感性。结果发现，由于共同的TC需求和施工实践，建筑物性能之间的相关性对社区的损失有重大影响。证明了该方法的适用性，适用于北澳大利亚州的一个小型沿海社区，并研究了估计的TC破坏损失对TC风场和建筑物组合的关键特征的敏感性。结果发现，由于共同的TC需求和施工实践，建筑物性能之间的相关性对社区的损失有重大影响。证明了该方法的适用性，适用于北澳大利亚州的一个小型沿海社区，并研究了估计的TC破坏损失对TC风场和建筑物组合的关键特征的敏感性。结果发现，由于共同的TC需求和施工实践，建筑物性能之间的相关性对社区的损失有重大影响。