Assessing the impacts of future land use scenarios on ecosystem services can provide theoretical basis and reference for sustainable land use management. This study combined scenario analysis and quantitative assessment to monitor land use and ecosystem services in the intensive agricultural area of Qixia city, North China under three different scenarios, i.e. natural development, farmland and orchard to forest and farmland to forest and orchard, by using the GeoSoS-FLUS and the InVEST models. The integrated land use change impact index (ILUCII) and the single land use change impact index (SLUCII) were proposed to quantitatively depict the impact of different land use change scenarios on ecosystem services. The results demonstrated that:

(1)

Under the three land use scenarios, forest, farmland and orchard show different change patterns. Slope influences the soil and water conservation services, land use in greater than 15° slope section occupied more soil and water conservation services than 12–15° section and less than 12° section. In the same slope section, forest had the most soil and water conservation services compared with orchard and farmland.

(2)

The effects of different land use conversion on soil conservation services per study grid (90*90 m) in less than 12° slope section showed an order of farmland-forest > orchard-forest > farmland-orchard. In more than 12° slope section, the order is farmland-forest > farmland-orchard > orchard-forest. The effects of land use conversion on water conservation services per grid is farmland - forest > orchard - forest > farmland-orchard.

(3)

The total ILUCII on ecosystem services found that farmland and orchard to forest scenario (16517.54) > farmland to forest and orchard scenario (13074.12) > natural development scenario (−4975.02). The mean ILUCII on ecosystem services showed that farmland to forest and orchard scenario (0.63) > farmland and orchard to forest scenario (0.53) > natural development scenario (−0.11). The mean SLUCII on ecosystem services found that greater than 15° farmland to forest (0.89) > 12–15°farmland to orchard (0.49) > greater than 15°orchard to forest (0.34).

评估未来土地利用情景对生态系统服务的影响可以为可持续土地利用管理提供理论依据和参考。本研究将情景分析与定量评估相结合，利用自然资源开发，耕地，果园到森林，耕地到森林，果园三种情景，对华北栖霞市集约化农业区的土地利用和生态系统服务进行监测。GeoSoS-FLUS和InVEST模型。综合土地利用变化影响指数（ILUCII）和单一土地利用变化影响指数（SLUCII）提出以量化描述不同土地利用变化情景对生态系统服务的影响。结果表明：

（1）

在这三种土地利用情景下，森林，农田和果园表现出不同的变化模式。坡度影响水土保持服务，坡度大于15°的土地利用比12-15°和小于12°的水土保持服务占更多。与果园和农田相比，在同一坡度部分，森林的水土保持服务最多。

（2）

在坡度小于12°的区域内，不同土地利用方式的转化对每个研究网格（90 * 90 m）的土壤保护服务的影响表现为农田-森林>果园-森林>农田-果园的顺序。在坡度大于12°的区域中，其顺序为：农田-森林>农田-果园>果园-森林。土地利用转换对每个网格的节水服务的影响是农田-森林>果园-森林>农田果园。

（3）

关于生态系统服务的总ILUCII发现，农田和果园到森林的情景（16517.54）>农田到森林和果园的情景（13074.12）>自然发展的情景（−4975.02）。ILUCII在生态系统服务方面的平均值显示，农田到森林和果园的情景（0.63）>农田和果园到森林的情景（0.53）>自然发展的情景（−0.11）。在生态系统服务上的平均SLUCII发现，农田到森林的夹角大于15°（0.89）>农田到果园的夹角大于12–15°（0.49）>果园到森林的夹角大于15°（0.34）。