This study was driven by a need to inform how extreme precipitation might change in the future by considering guidance based on how it has already changed. Hourly precipitation data from eight high quality precipitation gauges from 1958 to 2014 in Victoria (Australia) were used. Variations in the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events as well as their proportion of total precipitation were examined. On average, we found an 89% increase in hourly precipitation events exceeding 18 mm/h in the latter half of the study period as compared to the earlier half. The most extreme precipitation events increased in intensity by more than more moderate extremes, with larger increases during the warm season. The proportion of precipitation that could be attributed to extreme precipitation events during the warm season has increased in recent decades while annual precipitation totals have been declining.

Extreme value modeling was performed to estimate how the 2, 10 and 100 year precipitation events have changed. A statistically significant increase could only be claimed for two sites for the 2 year return period precipitation event. However, the mean estimates of the 100 year return period precipitation events at five of the eight stations from 1987 to 2014 exceeded the 90% confidence intervals of the 100 year return period precipitation events from 1958 to 1985, while little change was observed at the other three sites. Our findings have implications for improved planning and resilience around intense rainfall and associated hazards such as flash flooding in Australia.

这项研究的动力是需要通过考虑基于已经发生的变化的指导来了解未来极端降水的变化。使用了维多利亚（澳大利亚）1958年至2014年的八个高质量降水量仪的每小时降水量数据。研究了极端降水事件的大小和频率及其在总降水中所占比例的变化。平均而言，我们发现在研究期的后半段，与前半段相比，每小时降水量超过18毫米/小时的事件增加了89％。最极端的降水事件强度增加的程度超过中度的极端事件，在暖季期间增加幅度更大。

进行了极值建模，以估算2年，10年和100年降水事件的变化。统计上只有两个地点的两年回归期降水事件有统计上的显着增加。然而，1987-2014年间八个站中五个站的100年回归期降水事件的平均估计值超过了1958-1985年100年回归期降水事件的90％置信区间，而其他两个观测站的观测值变化很小。三个地点。我们的发现对改善强降雨和与之相关的危害（如澳大利亚的山洪暴发）的规划和抵御力具有影响。