Nonstationary stochastic simulation method for the risk assessment of water allocation,Environmental Science: Water Research & Technology

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Nonstationary stochastic simulation method for the risk assessment of water allocation
Environmental Science: Water Research & Technology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-11 , DOI: 10.1039/d0ew00695e
Shu Chen _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5} , Jijun Xu _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5} , Qingqing Li _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5} , Yongqiang Wang _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5} , Zhe Yuan _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5} , Dong Wang _{1,

2,

3,

4,

5}

Affiliation

Due to climate change and human activities, the assumption of the stationarity of hydrological variables no longer hold, and increases the risk of water resources management. To analyze the risk of water allocation schemes under nonstationary conditions, a nonstationary stochastic simulation-based risk assessment method is proposed. This objective was achieved via the following five steps: probability distribution analysis, hydrological scenario setting, inflow stochastic simulation, allocation model optimization, and mathematical statistical analysis. This is the first time that the hydrological nonstationary has been considered in water allocation risk assessment. The methodology was applied to the Zhanghe Irrigation District to assess the risk of water allocation to the municipality, industry, hydropower, and agriculture. The Zhanghe reservoir annual inflow, which is the main hydrological variable in the district, was found to be nonstationary. The results showed that the risks of water allocation schemes are larger than 0.60, except for in the very low scenario. Moreover, through comparing with the results under the assumption of the stationarity, it is necessary to consider the nonstationarity of the Zhanghe reservoir annual inflow in the process of risk assessment.

中文翻译：

配水风险评估的非平稳随机模拟方法

由于气候变化和人类活动，水文变量平稳性的假设不再成立，并增加了水资源管理的风险。为了分析非平稳工况下配水方案的风险，提出了一种基于非平稳随机模拟的风险评估方法。这个目标是通过分五个步骤：概率分布分析，水文情景设置，流入随机模拟，分配模型优化和数学统计分析。这是水分配风险评估中首次考虑水文非平稳性。该方法已应用于漳河灌区，以评估向市政，工业，水电和农业分配水的风险。漳河水库年入流量是该地区的主要水文变量，被发现是不稳定的。结果表明，除了极低的情景外，水分配方案的风险大于0.60。此外，通过与平稳性假设下的结果进行比较，

更新日期：2020-11-27

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