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Virus spreading in ride-pooling networks. Can ride-pooling become a safe and sustainable mobility alternative for pandemic urban systems?
arXiv - CS - Multiagent Systems Pub Date : 2020-11-25 , DOI: arxiv-2011.12770
Rafał Kucharski, Oded Cats, Julian Sienkiewicz

Urban mobility needs alternative sustainable travel modes to keep our pandemic cities in motion. Ride-pooling, where a single vehicle is shared by more than one traveller, is not only appealing for mobility platforms and their travellers, but also for promoting the sustainability of urban mobility systems. Yet, the potential of ride-pooling rides to serve as a safe and effective alternative given the personal and public health risks considerations associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is hitherto unknown. To answer this, we combine epidemiological and behavioural shareability models to examine spreading among ride-pooling travellers, with an application for Amsterdam. Findings are at first sight devastating, with only few initially infected travellers needed to spread the virus to hundreds of ride-pooling users. Without intervention, ride-pooling system may substantially contribute to virus spreading. Notwithstanding, we identify an effective control measure allowing to halt the spreading before the outbreaks (at 50 instead of 800 infections). Fixed matches among co-travellers disconnect the otherwise dense contact network, encapsulating the virus in small communities and preventing the outbreaks.

中文翻译:

病毒在拼车网络中传播。拼车能否成为大流行城市系统的一种安全且可持续的出行替代方案?

城市交通需要替代性的可持续出行方式,以使我们的大流行城市保持运转。单车由多个旅客共享的骑乘自行车不仅吸引了出行平台及其旅客,而且还促进了城市出行系统的可持续性。但是,鉴于与COVID-19大流行相关的个人和公共卫生风险考虑因素,骑乘骑车作为安全有效替代方案的潜力是迄今未知的。为了回答这个问题,我们结合了流行病学和行为共享模型,以研究在搭便车旅客之间的传播情况,并将其应用于阿姆斯特丹。乍看之下,发现的结果是灾难性的,只需要很少的最初受感染的旅行者即可将病毒传播给数百个拼车用户。没有干预,拼车系统可能会极大地促进病毒传播。尽管如此,我们还是确定了一种有效的控制措施,可以在疫情爆发前阻止传播(在50次感染而不是800次感染)。同伴之间的固定匹配断开了原本密集的联系网络,将病毒封装在较小的社区中并防止了爆发。
更新日期:2020-11-27
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