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Glacier Changes in Iceland From ∼1890 to 2019
Frontiers in Earth Science ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-13 , DOI: 10.3389/feart.2020.523646
Guðfinna Aðalgeirsdóttir , Eyjólfur Magnússon , Finnur Pálsson , Thorsteinn Thorsteinsson , Joaquín M. C. Belart , Tómas Jóhannesson , Hrafnhildur Hannesdóttir , Oddur Sigurðsson , Andri Gunnarsson , Bergur Einarsson , Etienne Berthier , Louise Steffensen Schmidt , Hannes H. Haraldsson , Helgi Björnsson

The volume of glaciers in Iceland (∼3,400 km3 in 2019) corresponds to about 9 mm of potential global sea level rise. In this study, observations from 98.7% of glacier covered areas in Iceland (in 2019) are used to construct a record of mass change of Icelandic glaciers since the end of the 19th century i.e. the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in Iceland. Glaciological (in situ) mass-balance measurements have been conducted on Vatnajökull, Langjökull, and Hofsjökull since the glaciological years 1991/92, 1996/97, and 1987/88, respectively. Geodetic mass balance for multiple glaciers and many periods has been estimated from reconstructed surface maps, published maps, aerial photographs, declassified spy satellite images, modern satellite stereo imagery, and airborne lidar. To estimate the maximum glacier volume at the end of the LIA, a volume–area scaling method is used based on the observed area and volume from the three largest ice caps (over 90% of total ice mass) at 5–7 different times each, in total 19 points. The combined record shows a total mass change of −540 ± 130 Gt (−4.2 ± 1.0 Gt a1 on average) during the study period (1890/91 to 2018/19). This mass loss corresponds to 1.50 ± 0.36 mm sea level equivalent or 16 ± 4% of mass stored in Icelandic glaciers around 1890. Almost half of the total mass change occurred in 1994/95 to 2018/19, or −240 ± 20 Gt (−9.6 ± 0.8 Gt a1 on average), with most rapid loss in 1994/95 to 2009/10 (mass change rate −11.6 ± 0.8 Gt a1). During the relatively warm period 1930/31–1949/50, mass loss rates were probably close to those observed since 1994, and in the colder period 1980/81–1993/94, the glaciers gained mass at a rate of 1.5 ± 1.0 Gt a1. For other periods of this study, the glaciers were either close to equilibrium or experienced mild loss rates. For the periods of AR6 IPCC, the mass change rates are −3.1 ± 1.1 Gt a1 for 1900/01–1989/90, −4.3 ± 1.0 Gt a1 for 1970/71–2017/18, −8.3 ± 0.8 Gt a1 for 1992/93–2017/18, and −7.6 ± 0.8 Gt a1 for 2005/06–2017/18.



中文翻译:

从1890年到2019年冰岛的冰川变化

冰岛的冰川数量(〜3,400 ķ3在2019年)对应大约9毫米的潜在全球海平面上升。在这项研究中,从冰岛98.7%的冰川覆盖区域(2019年)开始的观测数据被用于构建自19世纪末即冰岛小冰期(LIA)结束以来冰岛冰川的质量变化记录。 。冰川学原位)自1991/92年,1996/97年和1987/88年冰河以来,分别在Vatnajökull,Langjökull和Hofsjökull进行了质量平衡测量。已从重建的地面地图,已发布的地图,航空照片,解密的间谍卫星图像,现代卫星立体图像和机载激光雷达中估计了多个冰川和多个时期的大地质量平衡。为了估计LIA末尾的最大冰川体积,使用了体积-面积缩放方法,该方法基于观察到的三个最大冰盖(总冰量的90%以上)的面积和体积,每个冰盖在5-7次不同的时间,共19分。组合记录显示总质量变化为-540±130 Gt(-4.2±1.0 Gt 一种-1个平均水平)在研究期间(1890/91至2018/19)。这种质量损失相当于1.50±0.36毫米海平面当量或1890年左右冰岛冰川中存储的质量的16±4%。总质量变化的几乎一半发生在1994/95至2018/19或-240±20 Gt( −9.6±0.8重量 一种-1个 平均而言),在1994/95至2009/10年间损失最为迅速(质量变化率-11.6±0.8 Gt 一种-1个)。在相对温暖的1930 / 31-1949 / 50期间,质量损失率可能接近1994年以来的水平;在较冷的1980 / 81-1993 / 94期间,冰川的质量损失率为1.5±1.0 Gt 一种-1个。在本研究的其他时期,冰川要么接近平衡状态,要么经历了轻度损失。对于AR6 IPCC时期,质量变化率为-3.1±1.1 Gt 一种-1个 适用于1900 / 01–1989 / 90,−4.3±1.0 Gt 一种-1个 1970 / 71–2017 / 18,−8.3±0.8 Gt 一种-1个 适用于1992 / 93–2017 / 18和-7.6±0.8 Gt 一种-1个 适用于2005 / 06-2017 / 18。

更新日期:2020-11-27
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