The assimilation of population models into ecological risk assessment (ERA) has been hindered by their range of complexity, uncertainty, resource investment, and data availability. Likewise, ensuring that the models address risk assessment objectives has been challenging. Recent research efforts have begun to tackle these challenges by creating an integrated modeling framework and decision guide to aid the development of population models with respect to ERA objectives and data availability. In the framework, the trade-offs associated with the generality, realism, and precision of an assessment are used to guide the development of a population model commensurate with the protection goal. The decision guide provides risk assessors with a stepwise process to assist them in developing a conceptual model that is appropriate for the assessment objective and available data. We have merged the decision guide and modeling framework into a comprehensive approach, Population modeling Guidance, Use, Interpretation, and Development for Ecological risk assessment (Pop-GUIDE), for the development of population models for ERA that is applicable across regulatory statutes and assessment objectives. In Phase 1 of Pop-GUIDE, assessors are guided through the trade-offs of ERA generality, realism, and precision, which are translated into model objectives. In Phase 2, available data are assimilated and characterized as general, realistic, and/or precise. Phase 3 provides a series of dichotomous questions to guide development of a conceptual model that matches the complexity and uncertainty appropriate for the assessment that is in concordance with the available data. This phase guides model developers and users to ensure consistency and transparency of the modeling process. We introduce Pop-GUIDE as the most comprehensive guidance for population model development provided to date and demonstrate its use through case studies using fish as an example taxon and the US Federal Insecticide Fungicide and Rodenticide Act and Endangered Species Act as example regulatory statutes. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2021;17:767–784. © 2020 SETAC. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

中文翻译：

---

Pop-guide：用于生态风险评估的种群建模指导、使用、解释和开发

人口模型在生态风险评估 (ERA) 中的同化受到其复杂性、不确定性、资源投资和数据可用性的范围的阻碍。同样，确保模型解决风险评估目标也具有挑战性。最近的研究工作已经开始通过创建一个集成的建模框架和决策指南来应对这些挑战，以帮助开发与 ERA 目标和数据可用性相关的人口模型。在该框架中，与评估的普遍性、现实性和精确性相关的权衡用于指导与保护目标相称的人口模型的开发。决策指南为风险评估人员提供了一个循序渐进的过程，以帮助他们开发适合评估目标和可用数据的概念模型。我们已将决策指南和建模框架合并为一个综合方法，即生态风险评估的人口建模指导、使用、解释和开发 (Pop-GUIDE)，用于开发适用于监管法规和评估的 ERA 人口模型目标。在 Pop-GUIDE 的第 1 阶段中，评估者将通过 ERA 通用性、现实性和精确性的权衡得到指导，这些权衡被转化为模型目标。在第 2 阶段，可用数据被同化并表征为一般性、现实性和/或精确性。第 3 阶段提供了一系列二分法问题来指导概念模型的开发，该模型与适用于与可用数据一致的评估的复杂性和不确定性相匹配。此阶段指导模型开发人员和用户确保建模过程的一致性和透明度。我们将 Pop-GUIDE 介绍为迄今为止提供的最全面的人口模型开发指南，并通过以鱼类为示例分类单元以及美国联邦杀虫剂杀真菌剂和灭鼠剂法案和濒危物种法案作为示例监管法规的案例研究来展示其用途。2021 年整合环境评估管理；17:767–784。© 2020 SETAC。本文由美国政府雇员贡献，他们的工作在美国属于公共领域。