We formalize the Gaia hypothesis about the Earth climate system using advances in theoretical biology based on the minimization of variational free energy. This amounts to the claim that non-equilibrium steady-state dynamics—that underwrite our climate—depend on the Earth system possessing a Markov blanket. Our formalization rests on how the metabolic rates of the biosphere (understood as Markov blanket's internal states) change with respect to solar radiation at the Earth's surface (i.e. external states), through the changes in greenhouse and albedo effects (i.e. active states) and ocean-driven global temperature changes (i.e. sensory states). Describing the interaction between the metabolic rates and solar radiation as climatic states—in a Markov blanket—amounts to describing the dynamics of the internal states as actively inferring external states. This underwrites climatic non-equilibrium steady-state through free energy minimization and thus a form of planetary autopoiesis.

中文翻译：

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未来气候：马尔可夫毯和生物圈中的主动推理


我们利用理论生物学的进步，基于变分自由能的最小化，形式化了关于地球气候系统的盖亚假说。这相当于这样一种说法，即支撑我们气候的非平衡稳态动力学依赖于拥有马尔可夫毯的地球系统。我们的形式化取决于生物圈的代谢率（理解为马尔可夫毯的内部状态）如何通过温室效应和反照率效应（即活跃状态）和海洋的变化相对于地球表面的太阳辐射（即外部状态）而变化。 -驱动的全球温度变化（即感觉状态）。将代谢率和太阳辐射之间的相互作用描述为气候状态（在马尔可夫毯子中）相当于将内部状态的动态描述为主动推断外部状态。这通过自由能最小化以及行星自创生的一种形式保证了气候非平衡稳态。