Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women, and it is also the leading cause of death in female patients; the most common pathological type of BC is infiltrating duct carcinoma (IDC). Some nomograms have been developed to predict bone metastasis (BM) in patients with breast cancer. However, there are no studies on diagnostic and prognostic nomograms for BM in newly diagnosed IDC patients. IDC patients with newly diagnosed BM from 2010 to 2016 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database were reviewed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for BM in patients with IDC. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis were used to explore the prognostic factors of BM in patients with IDC. We then constructed nomograms to predict the risk and prognosis of BM for patients with IDC. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and retrospective research on 113 IDC patients with BM from 2015 to 2018 at the Affiliated Hospital of Chengde Medical University. This study included 141,959 patients diagnosed with IDC in the SEER database, of whom 2383 cases were IDC patients with BM. The risk factors for BM in patients with IDC included sex, primary site, grade, T stage, N stage, liver metastasis, race, brain metastasis, breast cancer subtype, lung metastasis, insurance status, and marital status. The independent prognostic factors were brain metastases, race, grade, surgery, chemotherapy, age, liver metastases, breast cancer subtype, insurance status, and marital status. Through calibration, receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analyses, we found that the nomogram for predicting the prognosis of IDC patients with BM displayed great performance both internally and externally. These nomograms are expected to be a precise and personalized tool for predicting the risk and prognosis for BM in patients with IDC. This will help clinicians develop more rational and effective treatment strategies.

中文翻译：

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新诊断的乳腺浸润性导管癌患者的骨转移的危险因素，预后因素和列线图：一项基于人群的研究

乳腺癌是女性最常见的恶性肿瘤，也是女性患者死亡的主要原因。BC最常见的病理类型是浸润性导管癌（IDC）。已经开发了一些列线图以预测乳腺癌患者的骨转移（BM）。但是，目前还没有关于新诊断的IDC患者的BM诊断和预后诺模图的研究。回顾了2010年至2016年在监测，流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中新诊断为BM的IDC患者。多因素logistic回归分析用于确定IDC患者BM的危险因素。采用单因素和多因素Cox比例风险回归分析来探讨IDC患者BM的预后因素。然后，我们构建列线图以预测IDC患者BM的风险和预后。使用引导重采样和回顾性研究对结果进行了验证，该研究在承德医科大学附属医院2015年至2018年期间对113例IDC BM患者进行了回顾。该研究在SEER数据库中纳入141959例被诊断为IDC的患者，其中2383例为BM的IDC患者。IDC患者中BM的危险因素包括性别，原发部位，等级，T期，N期，肝转移，种族，脑转移，乳腺癌亚型，肺转移，保险状况和婚姻状况。独立的预后因素是脑转移，种族，等级，手术，化学疗法，年龄，肝转移，乳腺癌亚型，保险状况和婚姻状况。通过校准，通过对接收器的工作特性曲线和决策曲线进行分析，我们发现用于预测IDC BM患者预后的列线图在内部和外部均表现出出色的性能。这些诺模图有望成为预测IDC患者BM风险和预后的精确且个性化的工具。这将有助于临床医生制定更加合理和有效的治疗策略。