ABSTRACT

This study aims to analyse the effect of the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI) on drought indices in northern Iraq. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for 3-, 6- and 12-month time scales was calculated to determine the behaviour of the meteorological drought for the period 1983–2014. Average drought characteristics were found for three periods: 1983–1993, 1994–2004 and 2005–2014. The SPEI demonstrated similar patterns for the 3- and 6-month time scales in terms of the worst drought years for the first and second periods. The relationship between SPEI and AOI exhibited higher correlation in the 12-month time scale than in the 3- and 6-month time scales for all regions. In particular, the AOI had a more significant impact on SPEI 12-month time scale for Mosul and Duhok regions compared with the other regions.

摘要

这项研究旨在分析北极涛动指数（AOI）对伊拉克北部干旱指数的影响。计算了3、6和12个月时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI），以确定1983-2014年期间的气象干旱行为。发现三个时期的平均干旱特征：1983–1993、1994–2004和2005–2014。就第一和第二个时期的最严重干旱年份而言，SPEI在3个月和6个月的时间尺度上表现出相似的模式。在所有地区中，SPEI和AOI之间的关系在12个月的时间尺度上比在3个月和6个月的时间尺度上显示出更高的相关性。尤其是，与其他地区相比，AOI对摩苏尔和杜霍克地区的SPEI 12个月时标影响更大。