Abstract The major functions of the subsea Christmas tree include production management, wellhead pressure control, chemical reagent injection, and oil/gas production safety control. It is necessary to investigate the reliability and safety of the tree for safe and stable operation of subsea production systems. A fault tree and a dynamic Bayesian model are used to assess reliability and safety and to consider the time slice-based characteristics of the reliability. Using the control variable method, impact analysis is performed to quantify the impact of each failure rate on the system and sort the impacts of failure modes on reliability and safety. Finally, failure prediction is performed. The results show that the annulus loop has the lowest reliability and is the most likely to fail. The failure rate of the tubing hanger has the biggest impact on system reliability, while the failure rate of the choke valve has the biggest impact on system safety. When the tree fails, the failure probabilities of the tubing hanger and the valve group of the production loop are relatively high. On the basis of the above results, corresponding control measures are proposed that can significantly reduce the failure risk of the tree.

中文翻译：

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基于动态贝叶斯网络的海底圣诞树可靠性和安全评估

摘要 海底采油树的主要功能包括生产管理、井口压力控制、化学试剂注入和油气生产安全控制。有必要对采油树的可靠性和安全性进行调查，以确保海底生产系统的安全稳定运行。故障树和动态贝叶斯模型用于评估可靠性和安全性，并考虑基于时间片的可靠性特征。采用控制变量法，进行影响分析，量化各个故障率对系统的影响，并对故障模式对可靠性和安全性的影响进行排序。最后，进行故障预测。结果表明，环形回路的可靠性最低，最有可能发生故障。油管悬挂器的故障率对系统可靠性的影响最大，而节流阀的故障率对系统安全的影响最大。当采油树发生故障时，油管悬挂器和生产回路阀组的故障概率较高。在上述结果的基础上，提出了相应的控制措施，可以显着降低树的故障风险。